BYU to Stay, UH to MWC?

[ponydawg]

So there was a post early this morning on MWC board saying that UH rivals had an article about dominoes falling. The article has been removed and revised (for some reason), but per a UH poster it said the following:

"It says that Rivals has reliable sources within the MWC that say that BYU has elected to stay, and that UH may be the next dominoe to fall and head to MWC.
He also goes on to say that he keeps coming across sources that indicate TCU AD Del Conte is putting up the most resistance to UH.
UH alumni believe that this is due to Del Conte's rocky relationship with EX-UH AD Dave Maggard, back when Del Conte was at Rice

UH alumni hope cooler heads in the MWC prevail, and UH is the 12th member and not USU. "

[RGV Pony]

I wonder if whomever is listening to sources is doing so with their rainbow colored sunglasses and assumes by "UH" they mean Hawaii and not Houston

[StallionsModelT]

Not sure I understand this at all. Increasing travel costs by a significant amount and Hawaii really doesn't do much in terms of strengthening the MWC hopes of BCS inclusion. I am starting to get the feeling more and more that BYU stays put in the MWC though.

[Billy Joe]

Why add Houston if it does not get you BCS status? Does Houston bring anything when negotiating TV contracts? Not sure I get adding teams to any conference if it does not get you BCS status or greatly increase your TV money.

[StallionsModelT]

Billy Joe,

I think the allure with Houston is the TV market. As we well know Houston does not deliver that market, but its probably more attractive than Hawaii. I agree though that Houston does not bring the MWC up to BCS conference status.

[ponydawg]

The only reason Houston makes sense is IF they are assured that they will be AQ BCS. But that isn't the case, right now they would have to apply for a waiver like the big east (i believe).
Maybe they think it is worth a shot. Boise, UH, and TCU all feel they have a legit chance of being BCS Busters this year, so they may think it might be worth a gamble to bet on all 3 having bcs busting years and banking on a waiver.

[StallionsModelT]

Maybe I'm looking at Houston as an SMU fan, but I don't think there is any way Houston goes undefeated this year. Also I think Oregon State and Baylor will beat TCU. Boise will lose to Va Tech and the have nots will be shut out again.

[ponydawg]

I know it was "last year", but don't forget they beat Okie State, Texas Tech, and Miss State last year.

[1983 Cotton Bowl]

If BYU elects to stay in the MWC, it will be very reluctently and only until they can figure out a better deal. In spirit, if not yet in fact, BYU is done with the MWC. There is no way BYU is going to sit contendedly in the MWC making $2-3 million per year and watch Utah rake in $10-20 million as a member of the PAC-10. That is simply not an acceptable order of things in Utah.

If BYU stays, it is only because they have been temporarily outmaneuvered by the MWC. That is not a healthy basis for a conference affiliation. They're gone. And when they go, I bet Air Force and TCU won't be too far behind them. Then the MWC will become the latest incarnation of the WAC. I wouldn't touch the MWC with a 10 foot pole right now. There's just no future in it.

[1983 Cotton Bowl]

Another thought. UT, A&M, Tech, Baylor, OU, and OSU have absolutely no interest in seeing any more Texas schools reach BSC status. They're not going to let the MWC (with TCU and/or Houston) reach that threshold. Remember, the Big-12 has the power to pull the plug on the MWC any time they want by simply inviting BYU and anyone else from that conference to join the Big-12. BYU's recent football scheduling is at least some evidence of a closer relationship between BYU and the Big-12.

If it looks like the MWC might attain BCS status due to on-field performance, I bet you anything that the Big-12 south schools will act to take the MWC down.

[RE Tycoon]

In a strange way, Houston has a good hand right now and should be trying to convince TCU to join CUSA. I have a very hard time believing MWC gets an AQ spot with the addition of Houston. And the risk to UH of turning down the MWC is very low because they most likely invite Utah State. There is a chance that SMU, Tulsa, or UTEP could get an invite, but do any of those schools go to a conference that is even with or worse than CUSA? And won't the TV money plummet without Utah, and possibly BYU?

I tend to agree that MWC is looking quite toxic right now and without a solid guarantee that Boise, TCU and BYU will not bolt for a certain duration, I'm not sold it's better than CUSA as things currently stand.

[EastStang]

Also if BYU stays, they are going to demand that USU be added as a condition of joining according to every source I've seen. They hung USU out to dry and are not going let them be in the DOA - WAC. Hawaii is of interest to BYU since there are a lot of Mormons in Hawaii. I suspect the Houston is low on their wish list as well. I still think BYU is out the door unless the MWC and Comcast really re-work their deal. I also believe that CUSA and the MWC have a "gentlemen's" no raid agreement in place for now. Otherwise, if UH was being courted by the MWC, you could bet that TCU would be courted by CUSA along with AFA. TCU is not going to be happy with more travel, less pay, and a schedule that only includes BYU and AFA every four years unless BCS is assured.

[ponyinNC]

that was my thought on the motive for BYU independence. They weren't really going to go indy, just go for one year, pay no penalties to MWC, and then Big12 invites them.

[NickSMU17]

If houston is invited..they are gone...

We just need to go out and win 8 games this year and get everyone in admin on same page

[1983 Cotton Bowl]

As much as it pains TCU people to think it, C-USA is far and away the best non-BCS fit for the Frogs. The entire basis for TCU joining the MWC was the hope that by combining with Utah and BYU, the conference could perform well enough on the field to attain BCS status. That was it. The MWC is certainly not a good geographic fit for TCU, the travel costs are higher, the TV deal stinks, every other team in the conference is either in the Mountain or Pacific time zones, and the other MWC schools do not have the same scholastic profile as TCU.

So now what. Utah is gone. BYU is either gone or going. Accordingly, the entire basis for TCU's membership in the MWC is evaporating. The MWC route to the BCS ain't going to happen. Where can TCU go? Maybe the Big East, which gets them into the BCS. There is no prospect of any other BCS conference taking them. So if the Big East doesn't work out, its just a question of which non-BCS conference works best for TCU. I think that's hands-down C-USA.