Hawaii year 1 vs SMU year 3

[SMU2007]

yea you are probably right. i agree that our passing game just hasn't been working all that well this year. which is even more surprising because we did have a good running game, that should in theory set up the pass. padron has had a lot of trouble hitting the open receiver for whatever reason in a lot of these games. i think the overall offensive scheme looks like it should produce more than it actually has

[Dukster]

Let's compare the offensive production of Hawaii in year 1 vs. SMU in year 3.

This is important because whenever anyone questions Padron, they mention how hard the system is to learn for both WRs and QBs, and how now, after two years in the system, 1.5 years starting, Padron needs more time to learn it.

For the record, I think Padron will start through his Senior year and improve, but I think there are major, major problems with his play now that need to be fixed. I just don't think "he hasn't had time to learn it" is a valid reason for the problems.

To put things in perspective, this is what Hawaii's starting QB did in 1998, the year BEFORE June arrived:
--------------
1998:
Dan Robinson 2155 yards, 11 TDs, 12 INTS, 46.05%. He played some in 1997, so he was a sophomore or redshirt sophomore at least in 1998.

Hawaii:
9/3/1998 Arizona L 6-27
9/19/1998 @ Utah L 21-30
9/26/1998 Arkansas State L 0-20
10/3/1998 Southern Methodist L 0-28
10/9/1998 @ San Diego State L 13-35
10/17/1998 Brigham Young L 9-31
10/24/1998 New Mexico L 20-30
10/31/1998 @ Texas-El Paso L 13-30
11/7/1998 San Jose State L 17-45
11/14/1998 @ Fresno State L 12-51
11/21/1998 Northwestern L 21-47
11/28/1998 Michigan L 17-48

Average points: 12.4 per game.
Not exactly a great team or a great QB.
---------------------

1999, year 1 of June Jones:
Dan Robinson: 3853 yards, 28 TDs 18 INTs, 51.8%.

Hawaii:
9/4/1999 Southern California L 7-62
9/11/1999 Eastern Illinois W 31-27
9/18/1999 Boise State W 34-19
9/25/1999 @ Southern Methodist W 20-0
10/2/1999 Texas-El Paso W 33-3
10/9/1999 Rice L 19-38
10/23/1999 @ Tulsa W 35-21
10/30/1999 Texas Christian L 14-34
11/6/1999 @ San Jose State W 62-41
11/13/1999 Fresno State W 31-24
11/20/1999 Navy W 48-41
11/27/1999 Washington State L 14-22
12/25/1999 Oregon State W 23-17

Average points: 28.5 points per game.
-------------------------

Now let's compare to SMU this year.

Kyle Padron: 3526 yards, 29 TDs, 12 INTs, 58.9%
(pulled from ESPN, unclear if includes UCF game)

09/05/10 at Texas Tech TV Lubbock, Texas L, 35-27
09/11/10 vs. UAB * Ford Stadium W, 28-7
09/18/10 vs. Washington State TV Ford Stadium W, 35-21
09/24/10 vs. TCU (Family Weekend) TV Ford Stadium L, 41-24
10/02/10 at Rice * Houston, Texas W, 42-31
10/09/10 vs. Tulsa * Ford Stadium W, 21-18
10/16/10 at Navy TV Annapolis, Md. L, 28-21
10/23/10 vs. Houston (Homecoming) * TV Ford Stadium L, 45-20
10/30/10 at Tulane * TV New Orleans, La. W, 31-17
11/06/10 at UTEP * El Paso, Texas L, 28-14
11/20/10 vs. Marshall * Ford Stadium W, 31-17
11/26/10 at East Carolina * TV Greenville, N.C. W, 45-38 (OT)
C-USA Championship
12/04/10 at UCF TV Orlando, Fla. L, 17-7

Average points: 24.8 points/game.
---------------------------------------------

I'd say that our schedule this year is roughly equivalent to what Hawaii had in year 1.

We're scoring less than Hawaii in year 1, even with an OT game included which skews the average. Hawaii year one did this with what appears to be a very average QB who's stats in year one of the system are about the same as Padron in year two, whom we think is talented enough to be an exceptional QB.

My questions is this:
Why is our offense not doing better than Hawaii in year 1, a team coming off an 18 game losing streak?

Why are Padron's numbers not much different than Robinson's numbers, a guy who doesn't appear to have been anything special. Are we just so used to horrible QB play at SMU that our ability to judge QB talent is skewed? Compared to Tate Wallis or Eckert (I refuse to include Romo in this disparaging statement who was clearly superior to Eckert and didn't have a [deleted] Louis Vuitton wallet) Padron is on a whole different level. I thought that level was 'good', but perhaps previous QBs were so bad Padron's whole different level is just "average".

Thoughts?





(FYI great site for stats up to last year: http://www.totalfootballstats.com/ )

There's more to being a QB than numbers. You also fail to point out Robinson's completion % of 46% and 51% respectively. I believe KP's were better in both years. You also fail to point out SMU's rushing attack for 2009 and 2010 as compared to Hawaii. These past 2 years are JJ's first 1000 yard rushers. You also fail to point out the truest measure of a QB and that's wins. I realize you have been so used to losing you can't comprehend when someone takes you to a bowl victory and to a conference championship game his first 2 years as the starting QB, and ANOTHER bowl game as well.
I wish novice fans would realize that football is the truest of team sports. The QB is only a part of it. I think JJ knows more than you "Couch-potato" and I'll spend my money supporting the Mustangs. You and others (Pony Scott) "spew" like you've played D1 college football, or even QB. Enjoy your beverage on the Blvd while Mustang fans support the team. How many bowls did SMU go to before KP took over as QB? Just curious.

[SMU2007]

i think he was just asking a question and trying to back it up with stats. i don't think he was being malicious or attacking anyone. calm down

this is a fan board...being a D1 qb is not a requisite for chatting about smu football...

[Samurai Stang]

You also fail to point out the truest measure of a QB and that's wins.

Actually, he does list wins and losses next to each game. For that matter, the use of wins as the ultimate statistic would only strengthen couch 'em's argument, as Hawaii had more wins in Jones' first year there than during his third at SMU.

[Dukster]

Playing in the WAC. Did Hawaii play #3 team in the country? In fact, how many teams went to a bowl game that year. Compare those to our schedule. Also, how do you compare schedules from a 12 year period? Ridiculous comparison.

[couch 'em]

There's more to being a QB than numbers. You also fail to point out Robinson's completion % of 46% and 51% respectively. I believe KP's were better in both years. You also fail to point out SMU's rushing attack for 2009 and 2010 as compared to Hawaii. These past 2 years are JJ's first 1000 yard rushers. You also fail to point out the truest measure of a QB and that's wins. I realize you have been so used to losing you can't comprehend when someone takes you to a bowl victory and to a conference championship game his first 2 years as the starting QB, and ANOTHER bowl game as well.
I wish novice fans would realize that football is the truest of team sports. The QB is only a part of it. I think JJ knows more than you "Couch-potato" and I'll spend my money supporting the Mustangs. You and others (Pony Scott) "spew" like you've played D1 college football, or even QB. Enjoy your beverage on the Blvd while Mustang fans support the team. How many bowls did SMU go to before KP took over as QB? Just curious.

Blah blah blah. Sorry to make you defensive about you/your son/friend/nephew/etc Kyle Padron. If we shouldn't discuss glaring problems with the offense, why the hell do we have a message board? It would get pretty boring around here if all we could post was "yay team!". If you don't like it, leave, like every other shill in support of one single player instead of being a true fan of SMU. Go join Bo Levi's brother who cried when people criticized his brother and then quit posting the day he transferred.

I don't claim to be an expert in anything, much less being a QB. Although I will point out that Mike Leach seems to do pretty well with QBs despite not even playing college football. That's irrelevant however.

Your points actually back me up. Padron had far more help from the running game this year and last year than Robinson got in Hawaii year 1. Shouldn't that have helped scoring? Yet we scored less than them against equivalent opponents.

Nobody questions that Padron has done a good job running the offense, limiting mistakes, etc. But it is also clear that this isn't the June Jones spectacular offense. This is a nerfed down version, or at least nerfed down results. Otherwise we would be scoring in year 3 more than Hawaii in year 1. There is a problem somewhere.

Since you are the expert, why don't you tell me?

[PonyKai]

And I thought we'd be able to actually have an adult discussion about the problems we've been having on offense this year. But noooo someone has to come along and curse us as blasphemous anti-June blowhard keyboard quarterbacks.

[Dukster]

Not defensive about a relative, and I sure as hell don't think KP reads this trivial trash. You are right about one thing, you aren't an expert. It is so mundane to constantly criticize one player for a team loss. BLM didn't deserve it either.

[Samurai Stang]

Not defensive about a relative, and I sure as hell don't think KP reads this trivial trash. You are right about one thing, you aren't an expert. It is so mundane to constantly criticize one player for a team loss. BLM didn't deserve it either.

Washington State. Or was that magical performance not BM's fault?

[PonyKai]

Couch Em: You stand accused of trying to start a frank and honest discussion about the state of SMU's 2010 offensive production. How dare you attempt to begin such a malicious, dangerous discussion involving facts and analysis.

[Samurai Stang]

Couch Em: You stand accused of trying to start a frank and honest discussion about the state of SMU's 2010 offensive production. How dare you attempt to begin such a malicious, dangerous discussion involving facts and analysis.

I enjoy how Dukster constantly demands individuals present facts in conjunction with their arguments, while he does nothing but argue using emotions.

[couch 'em]

Playing in the WAC. Did Hawaii play #3 team in the country? In fact, how many teams went to a bowl game that year. Compare those to our schedule. Also, how do you compare schedules from a 12 year period? Ridiculous comparison.

Not ridiculous at all. Let's say the TCU game (who we did very well against, considering) cancels out the USC game, where Hawaii got destroyed in their first game.

Now look at the rest of the schedules. Remember, we need to only look at defenses. I don't have the stats for the 1999 schools defenses, but we have played multiple defenses this year that are #100+ in D. The schedules are roughly equivalent.

Total team defense this year:
http://content.usatoday.com/sportsdata/football/ncaaf/stats/team-total-defense

In yards per game defense, some highlights:
ECU #120
Texas Tech #117
Wash. St. #115
Rice #110
Tulsa #108
Houston #104
UTEP #87
UAB #80
Tulane #74

Pretty pathetic defenses. Let's look by number of TDs given up:

(it doesn't redo the rank numbers, so I'm counting manually from 120)
ECU #118
Rice #115
Tulane #113
Wash St. #104
Houston #99
Tulsa #94
UAB #93
Texas Tech #89

It is pretty much impossible that Hawaii in 1999 played an overall easier schedule of defenses than we did.

Look what we scored against some mind-blowingly bad defenses. We have a problem on offense.

[Dukster]

Not defensive about a relative, and I sure as hell don't think KP reads this trivial trash. You are right about one thing, you aren't an expert. It is so mundane to constantly criticize one player for a team loss. BLM didn't deserve it either.

Washington State. Or was that magical performance not BM's fault?

Did he not throw for over 400 yards and 3 tds? Where is the team without that production? I realize 2 pick 6's occurred, but just because the QB position is the most visible, doesn't a right tackle who misses 6 blocks allowing 3 sacks and 2 fumbles have some responsibility for a loss? Doesn't a defense that can't get the opposition's offense off the field, share in the loss? Doesn't a kicker who misses an easy FG share in the loss? My point is that each loss is a team loss. One player doesn't cause the loss. Football, as I've said before, is the truest of team sports.

[PonyKai]

Not defensive about a relative, and I sure as hell don't think KP reads this trivial trash. You are right about one thing, you aren't an expert. It is so mundane to constantly criticize one player for a team loss. BLM didn't deserve it either.

Washington State. Or was that magical performance not BM's fault?

I realize 2 pick 6's occurred

And the margin of defeat was 3 points. 12 > 3. Next item of evidence.

[Samurai Stang]

Not defensive about a relative, and I sure as hell don't think KP reads this trivial trash. You are right about one thing, you aren't an expert. It is so mundane to constantly criticize one player for a team loss. BLM didn't deserve it either.

Washington State. Or was that magical performance not BM's fault?

Did he not throw for over 400 yards and 3 tds? Where is the team without that production? I realize 2 pick 6's occurred, but just because the QB position is the most visible, doesn't a right tackle who misses 6 blocks allowing 3 sacks and 2 fumbles have some responsibility for a loss? Doesn't a defense that can't get the opposition's offense off the field, share in the loss? Doesn't a kicker who misses an easy FG share in the loss? My point is that each loss is a team loss. One player doesn't cause the loss. Football, as I've said before, is the truest of team sports.

You forgot his other two interceptions. If you actually watched or listened to that game, you would never forget.

Or, let us look at another angle. BM was a horrible quarterback. The worst in SMU history. After he got hurt, Padron had great success. That success demonstrates that the problem lay with the quarterback who was BM, not the entire team.

Football is a team made out of individuals. Claiming that it is a "team" does not negate individual responsibility.