Selected Current Sagarin Predictor Rankings

by **ponyboy** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:27 am

Texas A&M 12
TCU 13
Navy 42
Tulsa 47
UCF 51
Houston 53
SMU 55
Southern Miss 61
East Carolina 80
Rice 103

by **smupony94** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:54 am

UTEP and Memphis so bad they are off the list?

by **GreenbeltPony** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 12:54 pm

IIRC Memphis is #168 (lower than some FCS teams).

by **ponyinNC** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 12:56 pm

so Tulsa goes 0-3 OOC, but somehow ranks abouve us and Houston? C'mon man. Bottom line - Tulsa lost those games. Kudos for the brave schedule, but a loss is a loss.

by **CalallenStang** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:10 pm

These are still weighted from last season

by **ponyboy** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:23 pm

True, Calallen. For the "first few weeks of the season."

UTEP 104
Memphis 200

by **CalallenStang** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:24 pm

ponyboy wrote:True, Calallen. For the "first few weeks of the season."

UTEP 104
Memphis 200

200? That's bad. That's really bad.

Of course, that's probably pretty accurate.

by **Stallion** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:36 pm

Northwestern Louisiana No. 159

by **Dooby** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:54 pm

If I recall, last year they relied on the prior season's finish through 4 games.

by **CalallenStang** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:56 pm

Dooby wrote:If I recall, last year they relied on the prior season's finish through 4 games.

I don't know what they did last year, but they are still weighted right now.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt11.htm

For the first few weeks of the season, the starting ratings have weight
in the process(BAYESIAN), but once the teams are all WELL CONNECTED, then
the starting ratings are no longer used and all teams are started equal
and the RATING, ELO-CHESS, and PURE POINTS (PREDICTOR) are then done in an UNBIASED manner from that point on.
The teams are now UN-CONNECTED and so all three ratings are BAYESIAN

by **ponyboy** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:57 pm

That sounds about right. It's statistical "connectedness" the system is looking for. Until then, the ratings are "Bayesian."

by **ponyboy** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 1:57 pm

Calallen beat me to it.

by **Dooby** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 2:01 pm

TCU at 13 and undefeated Baylor at 40? Hard to make any sense of that.

by **CalallenStang** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 2:02 pm

Dooby wrote:TCU at 13 and undefeated Baylor at 40? Hard to make any sense of that.

TCU had a better 2010.

by **smupony94** » Wed Sep 28, 2011 3:35 pm

Memphis #2

http://espn.go.com/college-football/sto ... om10110928