CFN: UH 45 SMU 24 (With Z Line)

[Harry0569]

SMU (6-4) at Houston (10-0) Nov. 19, 3:30, FSN

Here’s The Deal … When TCU shocked Boise State last Saturday afternoon, it probably had no idea how much it was aiding a former Southwest Conference rival.

The Broncos’ loss means that Houston has now taken the baton as the new BCS-buster most likely to earn an invite to one of the postseason’s five marquee games. The No. 11 Cougars are ideally positioned to become the first Conference USA team to ever play in a BCS bowl game, provided they can close out the regular season by winning the final three games against SMU, Tulsa and likely East Division champ Southern Miss. None of the latter trio is a layup, especially with the scrutiny on the program growing more intense than ever before. However, the Cougs have been a tour de force since Sept. 29, steamrolling their last five victims by no fewer than five touchdowns.

A month ago, this matchup at Robertson Stadium appeared to be the game of the year in Conference USA. Houston has held up its end of the deal, but SMU has not. The Mustangs have dropped three of their last four games, falling out of contention in the league race. And it hasn’t even been pretty. They scored just 10 combined points in losses to Southern Miss and Tulsa, and were unable to handle a subpar Navy team at home a week ago. It’s a good thing the Ponies procured bowl eligibility when they did, because their best ball appears to be behind them.

Why SMU Might Win: The Mustangs will not beat the Cougars in a track meet, forcing June Jones and the staff to rethink their strategy. SMU will turn back the clock somewhat this weekend, leaning less on the passing of J.J. McDermott, and more on the ground game and underrated defense. Basically, it’ll want to play keep-away from Houston as much as possible.

In RB Zach Line, it harbors an ideal battering ram to keep the chains moving, and the Cougars offense on the sidelines. The junior leads the league with 1,224 yards and 17 touchdowns. The D is stout in the front seven by Conference USA standards, ranking second in the league in total defense and fourth in scoring. Ends Taylor Thompson and Marquis Frazier, and linebackers Ja’Gared Davis and Taylor Reed have the ability to limit the damage by controlling the line of scrimmage.

Why Houston Might Win: The Cougars are running the kind of high-octane offense that many expected from Jones’ SMU team when he took over four years ago. Since September, they’ve elevated from potent to downright incendiary, scoring no fewer than 56 points in each of the last five games. QB Case Keenum has been operating in the zone throughout the fall, deftly getting his wave of playmakers involved and engaged. The senior has been near-perfect over the last seven games, throwing 27 touchdown passes and a lone pick. His targets are as plentiful as his stats, and include five different players who’ve amassed at least 500 yards from scrimmage.

An almost equal concern of the Mustangs will be an assertive and vastly improved Houston D that’s racked up more combined sacks, takeaways and tackles for loss than any other team in the league.

What To Watch Out For: The SMU offensive line will need to play its best game of the year in order to keep McDermott off his back. Up to this point, it hasn’t shown a penchant for pulling it off. Houston is willing to take defensive chances in order to make the big play, freely unleashing some of its better athletes on the blitz. The ringleaders have been the linebackers, Sammy Brown, Marcus McGraw, Derrick Mathews and Phillip Steward, who’ve compiled 45.5 stops for loss between them. Brown has been responsible for almost half of the tackles behind the line, and has played his way into the consciousness of several NFL scouts.

The more problems that the Mustangs O-line has this Saturday, the faster that the ball gets back in the hands of Keenum.

What Will Happen: Unlike Houston’s recent victims, SMU possesses the kind of running attack that’s capable of slowing down the game, and limiting total possessions. That approach will keep the Cougars from reaching the 60-point mark for the fourth time in the last five games, but it won’t propel the Mustangs to a huge upset.

Houston has too much firepower, on both sides of the ball, for an SMU team that hasn’t delivered a complete game since the middle of October. Keenum will unleash at least three more scoring strikes, piloting his team one step closer to that coveted January bowl game.

CFN Prediction: Houston 45 … SMU 24
- Click For Latest Line From ATS: Houston -19.5 O/U: 76

[redpony]

Boy is he spot-on with his analysis of the Mustangs. Very correct in saying that we haven't been able to deliver a complete game since the middle of Oct. When you look at what he says about the cougar high O it almost sounds like that should be our RnS performances he is talking about.

GO PONIES!!!

[RedBlueSMU]

Boy is he spot-on with his analysis of the Mustangs. Very correct in saying that we haven't been able to deliver a complete game since the middle of Oct. When you look at what he says about the cougar high O it almost sounds like that should be our RnS performances he is talking about.

GO PONIES!!!

Well, if we had a damn QB then the R&S we run would actually look like it's supposed to.

[redpony]

Exactly. However, I don't put it all on the QB. Most of the O as well as the coaching staff share in the blame as well.

GO PONIES!!!