SMU Favored by 15.5 Over Rice

skyscraper · Post by **skyscraper** » Sun Nov 20, 2011 10:05 pm

Kinda shocked by how big the spread is, but I'll take it as a vote of confidence from Vegas.
Just win baby!

Dutch · Post by **Dutch** » Sun Nov 20, 2011 10:12 pm

no shock at all. we held houston to about half their average. we can put up points sometimes, esp. against junk teams like rice and tulane. 2 TDs is about right.

03Mustang · Post by **03Mustang** » Sun Nov 20, 2011 10:40 pm

I think Jared Williams will be much more effective on Saturday, but I don't think we cover that. I'll be pleasantly surprised by a win after the last few weeks.

texasmustang10 · Post by **texasmustang10** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 1:56 am

smustatesmen wrote:You guys have forgot that home field is worth 3 points, right off the top. That means we're dealing with 12.5 points. Divvy that up.

First of all, homefield at SMU isn't worth more than 1.5. Homefield is usually worth 3 in the NFL, but it varies tremendously in college. Secondly, the line is down to 14 at most books. A 1.5 point change is huge, there is a lot of early action on Rice, and it's definitely not their fans.

This much line movement this early means that the sharps realize that not only is Rice the obvious play, but that every other sharp knows it too. They are putting heavy money on Rice to lock in the best spread before it grows even smaller.

Personally, I'm going to bet my savings on Rice +14, so that I will have something to feel good about when SMU wins by a field goal.

smusic 00 · Post by **smusic 00** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 2:09 am

Won't feel good about a win?

Dutch · Post by **Dutch** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 7:49 am

texasmustang10 wrote:
smustatesmen wrote:You guys have forgot that home field is worth 3 points, right off the top. That means we're dealing with 12.5 points. Divvy that up.

First of all, homefield at SMU isn't worth more than 1.5. Homefield is usually worth 3 in the NFL, but it varies tremendously in college. Secondly, the line is down to 14 at most books. A 1.5 point change is huge, there is a lot of early action on Rice, and it's definitely not their fans.

This much line movement this early means that the sharps realize that not only is Rice the obvious play, but that every other sharp knows it too. They are putting heavy money on Rice to lock in the best spread before it grows even smaller.

Personally, I'm going to bet my savings on Rice +14, so that I will have something to feel good about when SMU wins by a field goal.

That and they'll push it down below 2tds and jump on 13.5 the other way to play the spread and it will correct in late action

PonyKris89 · Post by **PonyKris89** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:06 am

I will happily wager $200 on Rice. If SMU covers, then small price to pay for my ponies to impress, if they don't cover, I like-a da money. Love these kind of pony lines!

03Mustang · Post by **03Mustang** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 9:49 am

CoxMustangFan wrote:
PonyKris89 wrote:I will happily wager $200 on Rice. If SMU covers, then small price to pay for my ponies to impress, if they don't cover, I like-a da money. Love these kind of pony lines!

Actually, SMT does this type of "wagering" on every one of his posts. If the BE falls apart, he's a "genius" and if it doesn't he's happy they're going to the BE. Unlike your bet though, SMT's comments have collateral damage on the poor folks that have to read his brain damage.

Agreed 100%. He has to be the expert, which is why he respouts stuff he reads somewhere else as fact or knowledge he got from his "inside sources".

Junior · Post by **Junior** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 10:43 am

Dutch wrote:
texasmustang10 wrote:
smustatesmen wrote:You guys have forgot that home field is worth 3 points, right off the top. That means we're dealing with 12.5 points. Divvy that up.

First of all, homefield at SMU isn't worth more than 1.5. Homefield is usually worth 3 in the NFL, but it varies tremendously in college. Secondly, the line is down to 14 at most books. A 1.5 point change is huge, there is a lot of early action on Rice, and it's definitely not their fans.

This much line movement this early means that the sharps realize that not only is Rice the obvious play, but that every other sharp knows it too. They are putting heavy money on Rice to lock in the best spread before it grows even smaller.

Personally, I'm going to bet my savings on Rice +14, so that I will have something to feel good about when SMU wins by a field goal.

That and they'll push it down below 2tds and jump on 13.5 the other way to play the spread and it will correct in late action

then get in now and late to lock in both side and hope for a 2 TD win by SMU.

SMU_Alumni11 · Post by **SMU_Alumni11** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:16 pm

Lets try a different line, Rice by 1.0. That should fire up the team. Saying we are favored by 15.5 will make them overconfident.

ponyboy · Post by **ponyboy** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:18 pm

Is anyone aware that we lost to the #11 team in the nation on Saturday?

SMU_Alumni11 · Post by **SMU_Alumni11** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:22 pm

ponyboy wrote:Is anyone aware that we lost to the #11 team in the nation on Saturday?

Overrated team, I bet Tulsa kills them or at least wins by 7. If Houston blows them out of the water, Ill retract my statement.

ponyboy · Post by **ponyboy** » Mon Nov 21, 2011 12:42 pm

We lost to a very good team at home on Saturday. We are playing a not very good team at our home this Saturday. The line is about right.

smupony94 · Post by **smupony94** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 11:25 am

-14.5

o/u 54.5

Kynd Tulsa Phan · Post by **Kynd Tulsa Phan** » Tue Nov 22, 2011 11:50 am

I just put 1,000,000 on Rice.