At 6-6 will we play BYU in thE Armed Forces Bowl?

Stallion · Post by **Stallion** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:14 pm

Call me crazy-I think Padron has more physical talent then all the QBs we've had on campus. I think he'll put it together. I'm not the one that thinks playing underclassmen QBs is a great idea so I'm not surprised he struggled somewhat as a Sophomore-but he didn't suck-you guys are making that up. He may not have lived up to YOUR expectations but he was a competent QB. Over time-playing experienced upperclassmen QBs has proven to be the winning formula in College Football.

StallionsModelT · Post by **StallionsModelT** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:15 pm

Padron should EARN the job. Connor Preston was a pretty highly sought after QB in high school and enrolled early so he could get a head start on learning the offense. Also, some of the practice reports about his progress have been positive. He would be extremely green but if he gives us the best chance to win he should play.

Stallion · Post by **Stallion** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:23 pm

G.J. Kinne struggled at QB for Tulsa-there was a time when Padron's star had eclipsed Kinne's last year. Tulsa stuck with Kinne and he has rolled out 12 straight CUSA victories and they got a shot at their second straight 10 win season. SMU has made this mistake on about 10 straight QBs-there is always a young superstar in the wings.

couch 'em · Post by **couch 'em** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:28 pm

ponyboy wrote:In 100 years of playing football at SMU, Couchem, we ought to have accumulated 1% of what you're calling bowl points per year. In two years, using your logic, June Jones accumulated 5%. So he's outperforming by 2.5 times.

OK, well I got bored and expanded a little bit.

First I added in bowl games for '85 and '86. If you are going to compare relative performance, you really should include bowls that we would have gone to without being banned.

We first played in 1915, but I don't know when bowls really began and when true organized seasons started, so I took 1920 on based on 1925 being a bowl game, giving us 90 seasons of football including 2011. I also included our likely bowl game this year as June's 3rd bowl.

That makes June Jones responsible for 7% of our bowl points.

All-time we are averaging .013272 bowl points/year
1920 - 1986 we averaged .016584 bowl points/year
1920-2007 we averaged .01292 bowl points/year
2008-2011 (Jones era) we averaged .020833 points/year

If you consider we weren't trying between death penalty and Jones' hire, you can throw out those years and compare pre-1986 to June Jones era:

Pre '86: .016584
Jones: .020833

Thus Jones has beat our pre-DP average by about 25%. If you want to say Jones is 25% more successful than the average pre-DP coach, I think that's fair when you consider he hasn't had a lot of time to make up for starting with NOTHING, and that balances easier competition than SWC. I think the numbers become skewed unless we get into a BCS conference with tougher competition, such as the BE deal.

If someone can get the actual number of bowls per year I can adjust.

Also, back in the 60s, 70s and before, did you have to "win" the conference to go to a bowl when there were so few? It seems like we should bump up their value based on that.

gostangs · Post by **gostangs** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:31 pm

QB's need the time to get it together - no doubt about it. Who would have thought SMU with our football success a few years ago (sarcasm) would have had multiple pro level qb's - McCown, Sanders (indoor), Bartel. These are all qb's that got given up on too early and were successful elsewhere later.

I think we will be just fine with Padron if he is healthy. At least we can put back in the qb shuffle to the sideline for a 5 yard gain - which by itself would have kept about 20 drives alive this year that ended early due to mobility issues.

PonySnob · Post by **PonySnob** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:32 pm

DanFreibergerForHeisman wrote:The best thing about playing BYU in the AFB is we will finally break out the blue jerseys.

Or will we break out the black jerseys and the black helmets that the players need to get fired up for the game?

MustangSTATS · Post by **MustangSTATS** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 12:42 pm

PonySnob wrote:
DanFreibergerForHeisman wrote:The best thing about playing BYU in the AFB is we will finally break out the blue jerseys.

Or will we break out the black jerseys and the black helmets that the players need to get fired up for the game?

Maybe they will just burn those terrible black jerseys from last year to fire up the players.

1983 Cotton Bowl · Post by **1983 Cotton Bowl** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 1:02 pm

Agree about Padron's talent. Physically, he looks to have all the tools for a June Jones offense. He's tall, big, strong, good arm, mobile, can tuck it and run, etc. If he is healthy and pulls it together mentally next year, then I see this team taking a huge leap forward (assuming of course that the aforementioned potential o-line issues are resolved).

ponyboy · Post by **ponyboy** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 1:08 pm

I'm 100% with Stallion on this one. I think we'll see Padron come roaring back. I believe Jones didn't plan to lean on McDermott for more than a couple three games. He planned on getting Padron back into the starting role this year after spending some time with a hat on his head and a clipboard in his hand. But then when the injury occurred, we had to rely on a lesser QB in McDermott. Padron starts next year and the year after and everybody will be wondering what idiot ever questioned the guy's ability.

PK · Post by PK » Wed Nov 23, 2011 2:46 pm

couch 'em wrote:Also, back in the 60s, 70s and before, did you have to "win" the conference to go to a bowl when there were so few? It seems like we should bump up their value based on that.

The Cotton Bowl always included the SWC champions and a highly rated opponent. I believe the Rose Bowl always included the Pac champions and a top big ten team. I'm pretty sure the Sugar and the Orange Bowls included an SEC champion at one of them. Not sure about what the other six bowls did.

1983 Cotton Bowl · Post by **1983 Cotton Bowl** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 3:06 pm

Before the BCS, the Sugar Bowl always (as long as I've been around) took the SEC champion. The Orange Bowl took the Big 8 champion. The Rose Bowl was Pac-10 champ v. Big-10 champ.

1983 Cotton Bowl · Post by **1983 Cotton Bowl** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 3:11 pm

"I'm 100% with Stallion on this one. I think we'll see Padron come roaring back. I believe Jones didn't plan to lean on McDermott for more than a couple three games. He planned on getting Padron back into the starting role this year after spending some time with a hat on his head and a clipboard in his hand. But then when the injury occurred, we had to rely on a lesser QB in McDermott. Padron starts next year and the year after and everybody will be wondering what idiot ever questioned the guy's ability."

Very hopeful to see Padron live up to his potential next year. The first order of business, of course, is to get healthy. I agree with the above except that I'm not sure June intended to start Padron this year after A&M. There was a time this season (seems like a long time ago now) where it was fair to say that McD had earned the starting job with his play. He looked pretty good up unitl So Miss. Once McD started going downhill, Padron was hurt and June's only real choice was McD or some frosh who is still trying to find the bathrooms on campus.

Stallion · Post by **Stallion** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 3:12 pm

remember when ND used to have a football program and used to have its pick of major bowl games. Quite literrally the ACC was thought of as tier two in Football. I remember the outrage when an undefeated Maryland team got the Cotton Bowl berth.

other Bowls back then

Sun Bowl
Bluebonnett
Peach
Gator
Tangerine
Liberty

I'm sure I missed a few but not many

mr. pony · Post by **mr. pony** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 4:47 pm

PK wrote:
Dutch wrote:oh, who cares any more. June has gotten SMU to 23% of our bowl games in school history. i'd say that's worth something.

The other 77% were to bowls that meant something. There are so many "bowl games" today it really reduces the significance of the experience. Yes, I understand it is better than not going to one...I'm just saying...

Amen. Thank you.

Wuba · Post by **Wuba** » Wed Nov 23, 2011 5:24 pm

couch 'em wrote:
ponyboy wrote:In 100 years of playing football at SMU, Couchem, we ought to have accumulated 1% of what you're calling bowl points per year. In two years, using your logic, June Jones accumulated 5%. So he's outperforming by 2.5 times.

OK, well I got bored and expanded a little bit.

First I added in bowl games for '85 and '86. If you are going to compare relative performance, you really should include bowls that we would have gone to without being banned.

We first played in 1915, but I don't know when bowls really began and when true organized seasons started, so I took 1920 on based on 1925 being a bowl game, giving us 90 seasons of football including 2011. I also included our likely bowl game this year as June's 3rd bowl.

That makes June Jones responsible for 7% of our bowl points.

All-time we are averaging .013272 bowl points/year
1920 - 1986 we averaged .016584 bowl points/year
1920-2007 we averaged .01292 bowl points/year
2008-2011 (Jones era) we averaged .020833 points/year

If you consider we weren't trying between death penalty and Jones' hire, you can throw out those years and compare pre-1986 to June Jones era:

Pre '86: .016584
Jones: .020833

Thus Jones has beat our pre-DP average by about 25%. If you want to say Jones is 25% more successful than the average pre-DP coach, I think that's fair when you consider he hasn't had a lot of time to make up for starting with NOTHING, and that balances easier competition than SWC. I think the numbers become skewed unless we get into a BCS conference with tougher competition, such as the BE deal.

If someone can get the actual number of bowls per year I can adjust.

Also, back in the 60s, 70s and before, did you have to "win" the conference to go to a bowl when there were so few? It seems like we should bump up their value based on that.

Interesting analysis, thanks for pulling it together.