The Disaster Scenario

1983 Cotton Bowl · Post by **1983 Cotton Bowl** » Fri May 25, 2012 1:44 pm

I don't know if this has already been posted. Apologies if it has.

This is an interesting article about the prospect of the Big East TV deal being less than half the assumed number. Apparently, the conventional wisdom is that the Big East can either match or exceed the $130 million annual deal it was offered by ESPN last year and/or match or come close to the recently signed ACC deal. If that proves incorrect, however, and the Big East is only able to command a much smaller deal, then I think the entire thing will unravel like a cheap suit.

This of course assumes the Big East can make it to September without further defections, which would also be disasterous. Assuming it can, it will all hang on the TV deal. Sign a good one, and you build some semblance of stability. Fail to sign a good one, and the conference is finished as a legitimate national brand for football. At this point, its all speculation. We'll just have to see.

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports. ... o-answers/

1983 Cotton Bowl · Post by **1983 Cotton Bowl** » Fri May 25, 2012 1:45 pm

BTW, sorry about the alarmist title. I'm not trying to be over-dramatic. But I think its a fair description of the situation if the Big East can only command a $60 million deal.

SMU89 · Post by **SMU89** » Fri May 25, 2012 1:51 pm

"sources"

1983 Cotton Bowl · Post by **1983 Cotton Bowl** » Fri May 25, 2012 1:57 pm

I should also add that I'd be shocked if Turner, Orsini, the Board, and the athletics boosters didn't contemplate the various TV deal scenarios before deciding to go all-in with the Big East. I would assume the same of the other schools that are joining.

dickey1331 · Post by **dickey1331** » Fri May 25, 2012 2:36 pm

Someone from CBS sports tweeted this yesterday too

Do you really care where I sent this from?

smuuth · Post by **smuuth** » Fri May 25, 2012 3:28 pm

That is why a university makes itself as attractive as possible and the alumni and fans play a big part. Passionate fan base with good attendance, stability in the coaching ranks.....what do you bring to the table? The OBAMA plan of sharing the wealth doesn't work at the collegiate level.

max the wonder dog · Post by **max the wonder dog** » Fri May 25, 2012 3:44 pm

Even if football $ don't meet expectations, the Big East is still a better football option than what is left of C-USA. For basketball there is no comparison -- more TV $, greater visibility for recruiting, and visiting teams that will attract fans to Moody.

austinponie · Post by **austinponie** » Fri May 25, 2012 4:02 pm

And how about if Orsini becomes Big East commissioner and holds a grudge?....

Kidding I think....

BIGHORSE · Post by **BIGHORSE** » Fri May 25, 2012 4:13 pm

austinponie wrote:And how about if Orsini becomes Big East commissioner and holds a grudge?....

Kidding I think....

We would have to fire Turner, or we would be skrewed.

kidding I think. :wink:

gostangs · Post by **gostangs** » Fri May 25, 2012 4:21 pm

It really is impossible to imagine a scenario where SMU staying in CUSA was the right thing to do - so we don't have to sweat that decision at all.

As for TV money - all potential bidders have an incentive to talk it down for the next couple of months. Once it gets closer and they see it is a shot at securing one of the few major conferences that come up for bid, with a footprint that is heavily east coast but covers the country - with emphasis on Texas - I think you will see the numbers people have been guiding to.

Regardless it is out of our hands and we made the right call. You think Brown comes here and breathes new life into basketball without Big East? That alone is worth it. We are small urban private school - we HAVE to have good basketball.

East Coast Mustang · Post by **East Coast Mustang** » Fri May 25, 2012 5:54 pm

gostangs wrote:It really is impossible to imagine a scenario where SMU staying in CUSA was the right thing to do - so we don't have to sweat that decision at all.

This.

Not sure how the BE will play out, but when someone asks you to dance, you hit the dance floor. Think BYU is regretting turning down the Big 12 now?

BigT3x · Post by **BigT3x** » Fri May 25, 2012 5:59 pm

gostangs wrote:It really is impossible to imagine a scenario where SMU staying in CUSA was the right thing to do - so we don't have to sweat that decision at all.

Ding ding ding ding ding

PoconoPony · Post by **PoconoPony** » Fri May 25, 2012 7:25 pm

1983 Cotton Bowl wrote:I don't know if this has already been posted. Apologies if it has.

This is an interesting article about the prospect of the Big East TV deal being less than half the assumed number. Apparently, the conventional wisdom is that the Big East can either match or exceed the $130 million annual deal it was offered by ESPN last year and/or match or come close to the recently signed ACC deal. If that proves incorrect, however, and the Big East is only able to command a much smaller deal, then I think the entire thing will unravel like a cheap suit.

This of course assumes the Big East can make it to September without further defections, which would also be disasterous. Assuming it can, it will all hang on the TV deal. Sign a good one, and you build some semblance of stability. Fail to sign a good one, and the conference is finished as a legitimate national brand for football. At this point, its all speculation. We'll just have to see.

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcsports. ... o-answers/

How does the ACC contract fine print read if there are defections from Florida State, Miami and Clemson or Va. Tech.????? Maybe the new superconference will be the merger of the Big East and ACC.......

ponyte · Post by **ponyte** » Sat May 26, 2012 7:29 am

One of the largest TV audience conferences with a very popular MBB TV conference will not be ignored by TV networks. It isn't just about football for this conference.

mrydel · Post by **mrydel** » Sat May 26, 2012 9:42 am

ponyte wrote:One of the largest TV audience conferences with a very popular MBB TV conference will not be ignored by TV networks. It isn't just about football for this conference.

Are you too worn out from graduating daughters to have the appropriate amount of panic?