Attendance Predictions

SmooBoy · Post by **SmooBoy** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 4:02 pm

In 2011 at home we averaged 20,894 with a high of UTEP (26,691) and a low of Rice (14,472). This was a shockingly high average as we sported quite possibly the worst home schedule ever.

In 2010 we averaged 21,310.

Here is how I see this season:

SFA 25,322 - opening game with high expectations and excitement
TAMU 36,884 - the grass endzone and most of the stadium will be covered in swaying maroon
TCU 34,295 - purple will be evident, but the red and blue support the good guys too
Houston 27,417 - we could come in 3-3 looking to get above .500
Memphis 22,266 - homecoming numbers add to a game with little interest to casual fan
So.Miss 20,186 - visitors travel okay but casual fan, again, disinterested
Tulsa 23,931 - TurkeyDay weekend with two bowl-bound teams

That comes to a 27,185 average. A strong sched finally brings them out.

Alasdair · Post by **Alasdair** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 5:57 pm

Stands didn't even look half of 20k full...

Charleston Pony · Post by **Charleston Pony** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 6:12 pm

SmooBoy wrote:In 2011 at home we averaged 20,894 with a high of UTEP (26,691) and a low of Rice (14,472). This was a shockingly high average as we sported quite possibly the worst home schedule ever.

In 2010 we averaged 21,310.

Here is how I see this season:

SFA 25,322 - opening game with high expectations and excitement
TAMU 36,884 - the grass endzone and most of the stadium will be covered in swaying maroon
TCU 34,295 - purple will be evident, but the red and blue support the good guys too
Houston 27,417 - we could come in 3-3 looking to get above .500
Memphis 22,266 - homecoming numbers add to a game with little interest to casual fan
So.Miss 20,186 - visitors travel okay but casual fan, again, disinterested
Tulsa 23,931 - TurkeyDay weekend with two bowl-bound teams

That comes to a 27,185 average. A strong sched finally brings them out.

I'd say those numbers are overly optimitic. Agree we should get close to 25k for SFA (opener) but A&M and TCU will be loser to 33k and Houston 25k. Memphis and USM will do well to draw 20k and Tulsa, because students will be leaving, might draw 15-16k if the weather is good. I hope you are right but history suggests otherwise. We clearly should end with a better average than last year, thanks to the A&M, TCU & Houston games

SmooBoy · Post by **SmooBoy** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 6:25 pm

With the strong aggie DFW contingent, and the fact that the corps will take up a good chunk of the visitor section, I see many many standing room tix being sold. This is their only appearance in DFW, so I see us taking strong advantage of that.

As for the Froggy High game, you could be right that 33K is closer to the truth. Much could depend on our records going in, and whether or not they are ranked.

You are correct that the schedule thins out a bit after a crescendo.

PonySnob · Post by **PonySnob** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:15 pm

Isn't it more relevant to look at the attendance in the games against the non "rent-a-fan" games against A&M and TCU to truly judge ticket sales? No doubt overall attendance will be higher due to these games, but the true success of any marketing/ticket sales will be measured by the other home games.

SmooBoy · Post by **SmooBoy** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:21 pm

PonySnob wrote:Isn't it more relevant to look at the attendance in the games against the non "rent-a-fan" games against A&M and TCU to truly judge ticket sales? No doubt overall attendance will be higher due to these games, but the true success of any marketing/ticket sales will be measured by the other home games.

And the model to that should point directly at UCF last year. We listed the attendance as 20K, but there were MAYBE 8K in the stands. How do we market to DFW the colleges they have never heard of? You market our team, and a couple individual stars, and get kid groups involved. It's an uphill climb for sure. Of course, good showings in the well-attended games helps too.

mrydel · Post by **mrydel** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 7:50 pm

PonySnob wrote:Isn't it more relevant to look at the attendance in the games against the non "rent-a-fan" games against A&M and TCU to truly judge ticket sales? No doubt overall attendance will be higher due to these games, but the true success of any marketing/ticket sales will be measured by the other home games.

No. A major factor in attendance is the opponent. If we wish to have better attendance we should schedule teams that will help not only our stature but also attendance.

PonyKai · Post by **PonyKai** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 9:32 pm

Everything from here on out is positioning and posturing to make the program and school as appealing as possible in this monstrous, cannibalistic, awful world of garbage realignment and "playoffs." I don't care if we import homeless people and pay them and feed them and clothe them for 2/3 of the games. An average attendance of 30K helps that cause. Let's start finding homeless people who want to be paid to go to a football game.

LA_Mustang · Post by **LA_Mustang** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:49 pm

The A&M game will sellout, easily....unfortunately, I predict 2/3 A&M, 1/3 SMU

Stallion · Post by **Stallion** » Tue Jun 12, 2012 11:31 pm

If played on a Saturday, TCU and A&M will both eclipse Stadium Record if Fire Department allows. We could easily get 45,000 for A&M and 40,000 for TCU if stadium was big enough.

squire · Post by **squire** » Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:28 am

Stlhockeyguy02 wrote:Everything from here on out is positioning and posturing to make the program and school as appealing as possible in this monstrous, cannibalistic, awful world of garbage realignment and "playoffs." I don't care if we import homeless people and pay them and feed them and clothe them for 2/3 of the games. An average attendance of 30K helps that cause. Let's start finding homeless people who want to be paid to go to a football game.

Finally. Someone with the ability to think outside the box.

westexSMU · Post by **westexSMU** » Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:11 am

One thing to consider this year is how many tickets will Legends Marketing sell ? I assume SMU is still planning to let them sell any unsold tickets to games this year. If true, I don't think you can under estimate their selling ability. Hopefully these people will sell what they claim they can.

sbsmith · Post by **sbsmith** » Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:34 am

Stephen F. Austin-25,000
Texas A&M-35,000- opponent driven sellout
TCU-35,000- opponent driven sellout
Houston-22,000
Memphis-20,000
Southern Miss-20,000
Tulsa- 17,000

Average: 24,857 (+3,963)
Pct Capacity: 77.67% (+12.38)

Small victory to get average attendance up but the product still won't be a draw.
Every game but the A&M and TCU games will obviously have far less butts in seats than announced attendance.

squire · Post by **squire** » Wed Jun 13, 2012 10:13 pm

westexSMU wrote:One thing to consider this year is how many tickets will Legends Marketing sell ? I assume SMU is still planning to let them sell any unsold tickets to games this year. If true, I don't think you can under estimate their selling ability. Hopefully these people will sell what they claim they can.

From what I have read, including their website, it sounds like their main concern is selling luxury suites. Not sure what other marketing functions they will perform. I have not seen any indication that Legends actually sells tickets.
What did they claim they could sell, other than luxury suites?
Of course, any marketing effort is better than no marketing effort.
Anyone have ideas on this?

westexSMU · Post by **westexSMU** » Thu Jun 14, 2012 8:28 am

Says in the article, SMU put out on their deal with Legends Marketing on April 30th, that Legends will be selling "ticket inventory" for SMU. Now what concerns me, is SMU has failed to make any further comment on the issue, so we don't know what Legends is really doing to help us if anything. At least SO was starting to understand how important it is to SMU Football to Sellout these games at Ford for the future. SMU just can't do it on their own unless a bcs team is coming to Ford.