An extremely early prediction of the 2005 season.

[UConn/SMU]

Looking at the schedule, one game (ATM) looks unwinnable and another (UAB) appears to be very tough. Fortunately, both of those games are on the road. So that leaves nine other games in which we should be very competitive and six of those games are at home. So what will happen? These are the remaining nine games:

ECU
TCU
Baylor
Rice
Tulane
UTEP
at Houston
at Marshall

I like our chances against ECU. They're barely ranked ahead of us (per CFN) and we have them at home. They've undergone some major changes lately. I expect to win this one.

UTEP will be difficult. I don't think they're a fluke. It's a winnable game, but I'm not expecting a win here. Odds are better than 50-50 that this is a loss.

Tulane is ranked significantly ahead of us (#73 compared to our #102). I'm not conceding this game, but an SMU win would be a significant upset.

That leaves five other games (TCU, Baylor, Houston, Rice, and Marshall). We'll probably be slight underdogs in all of them, but these games are essentially toss-ups. We could win (or lose) all five. The results will probably be somewhere in the middle. Winning two or three of these games results in a 3-8 or 4-7 season.

In summary:

The bad news .... I think it is likely that our record will be either unchanged or just slightly better than 2004.

The good news .... we should be competitive in every game this year (except for ATM). With an improving team and no Boise States/Fresno States on the schedule, we should enjoy ten good matchups. With some breaks, a 5-6 season can happen. And if the football gods shine on us, 6-5 is possible.

[Hoop Fan]

Is TCU really more beatable than Tulane? Maybe I'm wrong, but i'd flip flop those. I dont know what to expect for next season. I think it hinges on the offensive line...again. We have to keep people out of our backfield and off of our qbs. I think the defense should clearly improve with the jucos and the linebackers coming back from injury. Plus redshirts from last year. I keep expecting the Oline to get it together, but it remains to be seen if it can.

[EP Pony Fan]

I agree -- we should have a better shot at beating Tulane than we do at beating the Froggies. TCU may be slipping a bit, but they still have a more talented roster than we do. I wasn't at the game last year, but it's hard to disguise the score as anything other than one team being more talented than the other. I don't think they're 40-some points better, but I do think to play a lot better to compete with them.

[Charleston Pony]

you left Tulsa off the schedule...and anyone who looks at that schedule and assumes we will improve on last year's record is definitely an optimist. We could have an improved team on the field, and I think we will, and still do well to find 3 wins. Hope I'm wrong, but we need to find some emerging impact players to win against next year's opponents.

The questions are: will we finally find an offense next year? QB play will have to be better, the OL is maturing, there are more RBs in the stable, more receivers, etc...but who will step up and be our playmakers?

I see the defense as being a little deeper than last year, especially if Carrington and Lee are back at LB and Desmond earns his way back in the middle of the DL...but again...will we have an offense that can play ball control and average 20 pts or more?

[UConn/SMU]

you left Tulsa off the schedule...and anyone who looks at that schedule and assumes we will improve on last year's record is definitely an optimist. We could have an improved team on the field, and I think we will, and still do well to find 3 wins.

Oops - you're right: I forgot Tulsa. But on the projected record we essentially agree. Even with an improved team, we could easily finish 3-8 (again). The scoring margin in our losses should decrease substantially.

I have faith that we'll find another win somewhere, so I think 4-7 is where we'll end up. It would take an unexpected amount of improvement and some luck to reach 5-6.

[Mustangs35SMU]

Personally, I think we have the team to be 5-6 and thats what I expect.

I think we should beat Baylor and TCU in the opening two weeks. Should've beaten Baylor in '03 and didnt. This time they're here at home and even though Baylor is better, we also are better. We've been playing great at home! We're on a two game home winning streak, won 3 of the last 4 games. Personally I think it is better to establish a winning at home attitude before anything. Another reason why I think we should beat TCU. No doubt that in my mind that last year's game was a fluke and 2003 wasnt. Last year, was just horrible. I sat through the whole thing (am very proud of that and sitting through the whole Rice game) and each minute got worse. The guys werent hyped up at all and I think that we will be going into that game.

The first two games in the season, IMO, will prove what type of team this team really is. Are we gonna be in for another long losing season or are we finally turning and going to start the way back to glory?

I do think we will be atleast a little competitive in the A&M game. Close at the half then A&M will pull away. Like UConn/SMU said I do think we will cloes the scoring gap. We'll be a much improved team unless something happens. All injured players will be back and we can start fresh.

New Season, New Conference, New Attitude, New Team.

5-6 My Prediction, 6-5 possibley.

[Col. Nathan R. Jessep]

......

I see the defense as being a little deeper than last year, especially if Carrington and Lee are back at LB and Desmond earns his way back in the middle of the DL......

Is Desmond even enrolled? Was his scholarship revoked due to disciplinary action?

[Stallion]

some of you people just have no clue. Yes there is a window of opportunity to compete with Baylor at home-no we will not be favored and you would have to be an idiot to EXPECT a win. As bad as Baylor has been in the Big 12 they still have pretty darn good wins over Colorado and Texas A&M the last few years. SMU hasn't had wins like that in - well I can't remember the last time we had a win like that. Have any of you picked up a TCU roster and compared it to an SMU roster lately. I don't see ANY proven Robbert Merrills, Lonta Hobbs, Tye Gunns, Cory Rodgers, et al. I will concede that the talent gap in the sophmore and junior classes is narrowing but then throw in the LSU transfers, the Colorado transfers, and the much more highly recruited JC players from both this year and last year and even that claim is questionable. For the first time in 5 years-since we are playing at home-I won't predict a TCU victory just on talent alone but TCU has a hell of a lot more proven talent than SMU. SMU has questionmarks at almost every position on the field and a dearth of true proven, experienced stars. That's a fair assessment-do we even have a returning All-WAC performer? We have questionmarks at QB, RB, WR, OLM, DLM, LB, and in the secondary. SMU will need a huge contribution from its unproven, inexperienced players to make it close. In the last 23 games we are 3-20 with wins against San Jose St., Tulsa and Nevada with talent not exactly to be confused with the Four Horsemen of the Apocalyse. This team will be much more competitive with more experienced talent-for once just sit back and enjoy it and quit making these ridiculous predictions-by the same people year after year which have proven wrong time and time again.

[DallasDiehard]

Is Desmond even enrolled? Was his scholarship revoked due to disciplinary action?

Yes, he's enrolled. He'll be back in the fall. How his knee is, I don't know. But I saw him on campus a couple of weeks ago, and he looked like he's lost a few pounds -- he looked good. Seemed to be moving well on the knee. Of course, walking across campus is a little different than lining up against Justin Boren in practice and showing you deserve a starting spot. But yes, he's still in school.

And for the record, I agree that 4-7 is very reachable, and 5-6 would be outstanding. Anything beyond that is gravy at this point.

[Mustangs35SMU]

you would have to be an idiot to EXPECT a win.

Guess I am an idiot.

for once just sit back and enjoy it and quit making these ridiculous predictions-by the same people year after year which have proven wrong time and time again

And 'for the record', I was one of the few who predicted we would beat Tulsa and Nevada last year when almost everyone else gave up!

[SoCal_Pony]

I think it is very possible SMU will win 3 games next year.

Assuming that is the case:

1) Coach Bennett will have been here for 4 years, having won 9 games and averaging 2.25 wins per season.
2) You would be hard pressed to assume he will recruit a materially better class than this most recent one, which Rivals ranks at #80, and, outside of David Allison, had no player receive quality offers from multiple BCS schools. That is 1 player out of 25 and is not acceptable if you want to compete at the highest levels.
3) He will enter the 2006 season with his last 3 recruiting classes ranked by Rivals at #76 (2004), #80 (2005) and #78 (2006, assumes the average of the previous 2 years).
4) For the foreseeable future, will continue to have momentum killing winless Septembers. Solution – schedule NTSU and Grambling and pray.
5) There will be more talk on this board about firing Bennett than ‘winning championships and going to bowl games’.

It is a shame really, because I suspect 90%+ on this board believe Coach Bennett has a true knack for evaluating talent and recruiting; I know I do. Score another victory for Ken Pye.

[Charleston Pony]

I'm not as harsh as Stallion...but for those who think we are on our way to a winning season in 2005, consider this: SMU will line up only ONE senior in it's 2 deep OL & DL (Brad Kieschnick). The good news is that we've got plenty of guys in that same 2-deep who will be entering their 3rd year in the program and some will be entering their 4th year as RS juniors. Bennett and this staff have done a good job of building both lines, unlike Cavan who was always having to throw true freshmen in before they were ready. BUS is telling it like it is...it all starts with the big uglies up front and we've taken a beating in the trenches for years. That gap is narrowing and soon our skill guys are going to look a lot better because of it.

I'm as optimistic as the next guy and I don't really care whether Bennett's classes have all been ranked in the 70's. He's got some guys who are talented and have the physical tools to compete at this level, so if we see continuity and eventually reach the point where most of the guys on the field have been in the program 3-5 years, I really believe SMU will be very competitive in CUSA. As soon as this program starts producing winning seasons, I think we will do very well recruiting against our CUSA rivals, TCU, Baylor and a lot of mid and lower level BCS programs.

[BRStang]

Based on a study of the last 15 years of SMU Football, if I were writing a script for the Psychic Friends Hotline for answering calls about SMU's prospects next season, I would write the following:

Baylor: Well, the Mustangs hold their own in the first half, holding the Bears to just 10 points. But the second half just proves to be too much for the Ponies. Close game for a while. Final Score: 24-10 (L)

TCU: Geez, ugly loss...it's almost as though the Ponies forget it's Saturday and that the Toads are their supposed rivals. Final score: 44-7(L)

aTm: The Mustangs try to pick their severed heads off the ground, but the size and strength of the Aggies is just too much for them. What did you expect, anyway, a win? Boy, that Mentzel can punt, though! Final Score: 49-3 (L)

ECU: Wow, the Ponies pull off a win in their first C-USA game ever. Despite mediocre play on both sides of the ball, the Mustangs give it just enough to knock off the Pirates. Mustangs35 is confident that the Ponies still have a chance to win C-USA. Final score: 28-17 (W)

Rice: Coaching staff fails to "properly prepare the team" for the Owls, yet again. What is it about those geeks from Houston? Final score: 31-20 (L)

Tulane: Ouch, disappointing loss in a close game. Mustangs give it away in the final 10 minutes after Bennett yanks Eckert after only throwing 2 TDs and puts in Romo, who throws his 2nd INT. On the next series, Chris Phillips fumbles on the 10 yd. line, setting up the Green Wave's final TD with a minute to go. Final Score: 23-14 (L)

UTEP: The Mustangs are handed a loss by the well-deserving C-USA champs. Seems like Deja vu all over again with all that blue and orange on the field (Boise St.). Final Score: 52-10 (L)

Houston: Great effort by the Mustangs offense as they get their second win of the season. Defensive secondary gets burnt on a couple of plays, but Phillips and the gang carry the day. Final Score: 38-17 (W)

Marshall: The Mustangs pull off a squeaker, as they bring their A+ game to West Virginia. On paper, Marshall is clearly the better team, but the Ponies show they can play with anyone when they want to. Hats off to McMurtray--that boy's got a leg! Final Score: 22-20 (W)

Tulsa: Unbelievable!! Three in a row...Mustangs seem a little shaky at the end, when the Golden Hurricane score 17 unanswered points, but it's not enough to stop the Ponies! I can see it all coming together next year! Final score: 31-24 (W)

UAB: Oops, better not fly out to Birmingham for this one...not the way you want to end a season. The Blazers are going bowling next month, while the boys from the Hilltop will be opening their Christmas presents. Final Score: 41-13 (L)

4-7? Just wait til next year!!

[ThadFilms]

Hey, I'm predicting, wins over Baylor and TCU. But then again, when it comes to my team... I usually expect to win.


(Note: if anybody read the post I had here for about two minutes, I looked back and realised the earlier posts weren't as harsh as I had remembered.)

[PonySnob]

I think we should beat Baylor and TCU in the opening two weeks.

Wasn't our last win in the month of September the opening game at Ford? When was the last time SMU won 2 games during September? It had to be back in the days when we had a professional team.