BE is not the only conference that is nervous

[Water Pony]

It goes without saying that the four super conferences are Big 10, SEC, Pac 12 and Big 12. So the key question is how many schools will each conference top out at? PAC 12 does not appear to have any more natural additions in the West and may be at their max, i.e. 12. Big 12 may remain at 12 or try for 14, e.g. Louisville/Cincinnati combo or FSU/Clemson. The SEC is comfortable at 14 because Florida and South Carolina will resist FSU and Clemson. Even going after NC/Duke/NCSU would be a problem.

So, who should be nervous? ACC. I predict that Georgia Tech in the Atlanta market will be next Big 10 target. Number 16 should have been Missouri (and KU won't separate from KSU), so the final selection for Big 10 will be North Carolina State (the stepchild of the North Carolina ACC schools) or Virginia Tech.

With GT and another school picked off by the Big 10, FSU and Clemson will flee to the Big 12, which are better choices over Louisville and Cincinnati.

ACC should be as nervous as the BE and this may force these two conferences to cooperate. BTW, ND can not be too happy.

[East Coast Mustang]

It goes without saying that the four super conferences are Big 10, SEC, Pac 12 and Big 12. So the key question is how many schools will each conference top out at? PAC 12 does not appear to have any more natural additions in the West and may be at their max, i.e. 12. Big 12 may remain at 12 or try for 14, e.g. Louisville/Cincinnati combo or FSU/Clemson. The SEC is comfortable at 14 because Florida and South Carolina will resist FSU and Clemson. Even going after NC/Duke/NCSU would be a problem.

So, who should be nervous? ACC. I predict that Georgia Tech in the Atlanta market will be next Big 10 target. Number 16 should have been Missouri (and KU won't separate from KSU), so the final selection for Big 10 will be North Carolina State (the stepchild of the North Carolina ACC schools) or Virginia Tech.

With GT and another school picked off by the Big 10, FSU and Clemson will flee to the Big 12, which are better choices over Louisville and Cincinnati.

ACC should be as nervous as the BE and this may force these two conferences to cooperate. BTW, ND can not be too happy.

I think the B10 will focus on schools which are contiguous to states with current B10 membership. I think UVa makes the most sense all around. VA legislature won't allow it unless VT is taken care of as well, I think they may be off to the SEC sooner than we thought. I think the B10 will target UVa next, and then convince ND that the conference has enough East Coast exposure to entice them.

If everyone is going to go the 16 team route, it really makes the most sense to go to an 11 game reg seasons schedule, with four 4 team divisions and a two round conference championship. Can you imagine if the SEC had this now? LSU v Alabama and Florida v Georgia in the conference semis? The hype and TV ratings would be astronomical.

Let's not forget, just over a year ago OU was flirting with the Pac-12. I still think it's only a matter of time before OU, Ok State, Texas, and Texas Tech bolt for the Pac-12. Then you'll see some kind of weird, hybrid marriage of the remaining B12 and ACC schools.

[gostangs]

pac 12 will not split the pie with tech and osu. its just not going to happen.

[East Coast Mustang]

pac 12 will not split the pie with tech and osu. its just not going to happen.

Except it almost did about two years ago. They'll do it to get the market share, and they can't get Texas and OU without Tech and OSU for political reasons.

[East Coast Mustang]

Scratch that, one year ago:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/colleg ... s-tech.ece

[Digetydog]

pac 12 will not split the pie with tech and osu. its just not going to happen.

Except it almost did about two years ago. They'll do it to get the market share, and they can't get Texas and OU without Tech and OSU for political reasons.

They cannot get Texas or OU under any circumstances. Both schools are making out very well in the Big12 financially and they have all the power they want. Plus, they gave up their Tier 1/2 TV rights and schools like Baylor, TCU, Kanas, KState, etc would be morons to ever negotiate that away. Bottom line: There is no way they will leave.

OSU and Tech don't meet the academic needs of the Pac 12 by themselves and are not in big TV markets. While the Big 12 might let them leave with their TV rights, I don't think anyone would imagine the finances working out.

Bottom Line: the Big 12, Big 10, SEC and Pac 12 will survive in some form with all of their current members + who they decide to add. The only issue will be the survival of the ACC and Big East schools. There is no way for the Big 10/12/SEC to absorb "ALL" of the big east coast schools that would need a home. UNC, VT, UVA, NCST, CLE, MIA, FSU,SYR, BC, PITT, LV, CINCI.

Because of geography, the Pac 12 cannot absorb a school like UNC, Duke or UVA unless it was for football only.

That suggests to me that the ACC will have to survive in some form.

[JasonB]

The conferences with the biggest motivation to expand are the Big 12 and PAC 12 because of trying to get a footprint in other timezones.

If the Big 12 moves aggressively to grab ACC or Big East schools, in order to spread their footprint, I don't think anyone will be willing to leave the Big 12. The Big 10 is not going to go south, it doesn't help them at all to pull in a KU or something like that. I don't think the SEC will make a move, because they already control their region, and grabbing ACC teams doesn't really impact them from a market or revenue standpoint. And it wouldn't be a positive for them to grab someone in the NE. I could maybe see them grabbing Louisville to improve basketball and give Kentucky a rivalry, but that is about it.

Any additional moves are probably going to come by way of the Big 12. If they decide to expand, it will cause chaos with the ACC/Big East. I don't know if the Pac 12 will follow suit. Let's pretend for a moment that they are interested in SMU. Who else would they take with us? Rice? Really? Boise, SD State, BYU aren't good enough academically to be allowed in, they have made that clear. Is Houston good enough for them in that case? I just don't think there are enough academic targets for the PAC 10 to consider.

I think if the Big 12 chooses to grow, it just ends up depleting the Big East even further, and the conference just ends up becoming the best of the "non-major" conferences. In other words, the exact same as it is now.

[Water Pony]

I am in San Diego this week for Turkey Day and the two lead sports articles in the San Diego Union Tribune are emphatic that San Diego State remains firmly committed to Big East Football. Staying in the Mountain West is not an option due to small media pay-outs, fewer eyeballs in the much smaller MWC markets and a weaker brand than the BE, despite deflections.

With SDSU locked in, Boise State will feel the same and BYU is still in play to join. Interesting that the western schools may be saving grace for BE, which will still have the best path to the guaranteed sixth spot in the Bowl Games before the other conferences, MWC, CUSA, MAC and SunBelt.

What happens to ACC may be more interesting, while the PAC 12 and SEC stay pat with current membership. Only Big 10 and Big 12 may make further moves.

[East Coast Mustang]

I am in San Diego this week for Turkey Day and the two lead sports articles in the San Diego Union Tribune are emphatic that San Diego State remains firmly committed to Big East Football. Staying in the Mountain West is not an option due to small media pay-outs, fewer eyeballs in the much smaller MWC markets and a weaker brand than the BE, despite deflections.

With SDSU locked in, Boise State will feel the same and BYU is still in play to join. Interesting that the western schools may be saving grace for BE, which will still have the best path to the guaranteed sixth spot in the Bowl Games before the other conferences, MWC, CUSA, MAC and SunBelt.

What happens to ACC may be more interesting, while the PAC 12 and SEC stay pat with current membership. Only Big 10 and Big 12 may make further moves.

How many would the B12 add, though? 12 to get a conference champ w/ Clemson and FSU? Or 14/16?

If 12- FSU & Clemson
If 14- FSU, Clemson, GT, and VT/Louisville (depends on if VT goes to SEC)
If 16- FSU, Clemson, GT, VT/Louisville, Cincinnati, USF/Louisville/BYU, in my opinion

[GRGB]

I am in San Diego this week for Turkey Day and the two lead sports articles in the San Diego Union Tribune are emphatic that San Diego State remains firmly committed to Big East Football. Staying in the Mountain West is not an option due to small media pay-outs, fewer eyeballs in the much smaller MWC markets and a weaker brand than the BE, despite deflections.

With SDSU locked in, Boise State will feel the same and BYU is still in play to join. Interesting that the western schools may be saving grace for BE, which will still have the best path to the guaranteed sixth spot in the Bowl Games before the other conferences, MWC, CUSA, MAC and SunBelt.

What happens to ACC may be more interesting, while the PAC 12 and SEC stay pat with current membership. Only Big 10 and Big 12 may make further moves.

How many would the B12 add, though? 12 to get a conference champ w/ Clemson and FSU? Or 14/16?

If 12- FSU & Clemson
If 14- FSU, Clemson, GT, and VT/Louisville (depends on if VT goes to SEC)
If 16- FSU, Clemson, GT, VT/Louisville, Cincinnati, USF/Louisville/BYU, in my opinion

I wouldn't think CINCY would be worthwhile at all.

If anything, they would add PITT to pair up with WV out east.

[East Coast Mustang]

I am in San Diego this week for Turkey Day and the two lead sports articles in the San Diego Union Tribune are emphatic that San Diego State remains firmly committed to Big East Football. Staying in the Mountain West is not an option due to small media pay-outs, fewer eyeballs in the much smaller MWC markets and a weaker brand than the BE, despite deflections.

With SDSU locked in, Boise State will feel the same and BYU is still in play to join. Interesting that the western schools may be saving grace for BE, which will still have the best path to the guaranteed sixth spot in the Bowl Games before the other conferences, MWC, CUSA, MAC and SunBelt.

What happens to ACC may be more interesting, while the PAC 12 and SEC stay pat with current membership. Only Big 10 and Big 12 may make further moves.

How many would the B12 add, though? 12 to get a conference champ w/ Clemson and FSU? Or 14/16?

If 12- FSU & Clemson
If 14- FSU, Clemson, GT, and VT/Louisville (depends on if VT goes to SEC)
If 16- FSU, Clemson, GT, VT/Louisville, Cincinnati, USF/Louisville/BYU, in my opinion

I wouldn't think CINCY would be worthwhile at all.

If anything, they would add PITT to pair up with WV out east.

Yeah, you're probably right about that.