Everything depends on the Big 10's next move

[leopold]

It is believed that conference realignment will be capped at 16 schools for each conference. That means there are two remaining spots in the Big 10, who has publically stated they are looking at new members. Additionally, their payout is about $10 M/year, maybe more, than either the Big XII or the ACC and they will have their pick.

It's known that :

The Big 10 has talked to a number of schools from each conference - Iowa has been known to push for ISU, Penn State has been vocal about admitting Pitt, and the Big 10 has approached everyone from Kansas to Duke. There are some elements in the Big 10 who want more TV markets and therefore wants schools on the coast, while there are those who are against losing their midwestern identity.

It's also known that the SEC wants into North Carolina and Virginia, and has approached those schools - that was what the ESPN article about North Carolina not leaving the ACC was about.

Florida State and Clemson, both football schools in basketball conferences, wanted in the SEC when Mizzou was taken, but were blackballed by their respective in-state sister school. That was when they talked to the Big XII.

Whichever conference gets raided by the Big Ten next, look for the SEC to move right behind them, along with the second weak conference to lock up their membership.

[leopold]

Scenario 1: ACC raided

- The Big 10 decide on Pitt and BC for TV markets
- When that happens the Big XII goes after FSU and Clemson and possibly another school to join WVU as the East Coast Wing of the Big XII. The ACC starts talking to UConn and USF.
- The SEC goes over the 6 schools in Virginia and North Carolina and tells them the hard truth: This is no longer the ACC they were planning for and they are about to be holding the bag. The SEC has two spots in the league and whichever two schools from those states - be it NC and VA, NC and NCSU, VA and VT, Duke and NC, or even possibly VT and Wake - want to keep moving forward, they need to decide are welcome to join them.

It's possible that the remaining schools from that conference start looking to form either a southern or northeastern based conference, depending upon the remaining schools.

Scenario 2: Big XII raided
- The Big 10 decides on Kansas and Kansas St. to expand its midwestern identity.
- The ACC is relieved, and decides its going to 14 to protect against a raid, and recruits WVU and possibly UConn.
- The Big XII starts talking to Cincinatti and BYU.
- The Pac 12 starts talking to Texas again.
- The SEC is now at a crossroads - They know they can still get FSU, Clemson, or possibly GaTech, but they won't be able to convince any VA or NC schools. Problem is those 3 schools don't bring any additonal TV markets and their sister schools are still stamping their feet, saying 'NO'. There is also room in Texas for an additional school. They attempt to talk to Texas but are ignored again.
- UT, OU, OSU and a fourth school, possibly Tech, start talking to the PAC 12
- This is where my imagination ends, becuas I can't belioeeve TT is going to the PAC 12

[gostangs]

none of your big 12 raided steps make any sense. first of all - big 12 pledged tv rights - so raiding is almost impossible. second - big 12 have almost no teams that help the big 10 pie grow - unless they come get UT which wont happen (no kansas team helps, for example). WVU would never jump from big 12 to acc - that would be step down. nobody is going to offer NC and NC state - same tv market. Wake has no value. They are a luckier version of us, except with no tv market.

acc is going to get raided - its just a matter of when. we need to try to jump ahead of the curve and offer texas coverage to one of the three bigs who are not in texas.

[CalallenStang]

For the B12 to be raided, the GoR would need to be dissolved. Not impossible, but very, very unlikely. It's far more likely that ACC gets raided.

[WordUpBU]

For the B12 to be raided, the GoR would need to be dissolved. Not impossible, but very, very unlikely. It's far more likely that ACC gets raided.

Agreed. The biggest questions are which teams the B1G and SEC can pry free and how much that affects the Big 12's ability to grab others. I feel like things are pointing towards the ACC losing more but this stuff changes frequently.

Best thing for SMU and the remaining Big East football conference is to take a defensive raid on the MWC to maintain position over them. Take the 2-3 most marketable MWC teams to ensure BSU & SDSU stick around. You don't want to be in a position where the MWC is taking SDSU & BSU and the ACC has taken UConn, Cincy, and two or more schools to replenish after a large raid.

The TV gap is too big to catch up to the ACC but that doesn't mean the BE can't kneecap their nearest competitor to maintain their standing in the pecking order should a worst-case scenario strike. I feel like CUSA is so far back they aren't a threat. Even if all you had was SMU, UH, Memphis, Tulane, ECU, and Temple I would guess that Rice, Tulsa, UTEP, UTSA, USM, and others would likely come if asked.

[JasonB]

Everything actually depends on when/how the Maryland lawsuit situation wraps up.

The moment that thing is done, the ACC will lose two schools (most likely GT and UNC) to the Big 10.

The big question when that happens is what happens next. There are two real scenarios:

1) The SEC and/or Big 12 immediately decide to expand. In that case, they will rip the rest of the ACC apart. The Big East becomes the "Best of the rest" conference and absorbs leftover ACC teams.

2) The SEC and/or Big 12 hold off. ACC raids the Big East to fill it's numbers out again so that it can be a 5th major conference, and then the big East is the "best of the rest" conference, absorbing BYU and some others.

Either way, there are going to be either 4 or 5 major conferences and then 2 best of the rest conferences (big east and mountain west).

There are two low probability best case scenarios:

1) PAC decides to expand as well as the others, every one goes to 18 teams,and SMU is part of one of the major conferences.

2) The Big East and MWC merge their best members to try and create a 6th major conference.

[leopold]

none of your big 12 raided steps make any sense. first of all - big 12 pledged tv rights - so raiding is almost impossible. second - big 12 have almost no teams that help the big 10 pie grow - unless they come get UT which wont happen (no kansas team helps, for example). WVU would never jump from big 12 to acc - that would be step down. nobody is going to offer NC and NC state - same tv market. Wake has no value. They are a luckier version of us, except with no tv market.

acc is going to get raided - its just a matter of when. we need to try to jump ahead of the curve and offer texas coverage to one of the three bigs who are not in texas.

I'm not saying the Big 10 will absolutely raid the Big XII - I don't know what they want in a school.

But if you think ISU, Kansas, or Kansas State wouldn't go you are wrong, wrong, wrong, and there is only so many times that conference can be raided before it is as watered down as the Big East right now, I don't care how irrelevant ISU might be. The new Big XII financial package is better than it was, but it is still a step behind the Pac12 and SEC, and that's before the SEC renegotiates, much less the Big 10:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/prishe/2012 ... -espn-fox/
If it had been any of the schools I just mentioned instead of Maryland, they would have jumped,too - Bank on it.

The fact that the Big XII is - absolutely is - in a better situation than the ACC right now does NOT mean they aren't in a precarious one. It will absolutely be the Big 10's decision who comes with them.

[gostangs]

i didn't say ISU, kansas or kansas state wouldn't go - i said they wouldn't be asked - for three big reasons -
1) they have pledged their tv rights - therefore they have no value to the big 10
2) they are in po-dunk markets, therefore taking more then they give, by adding a slice to the pie
3) none of them are AAU schools - which is apparently important to Big 10 commissioner, even though it means nothing when related to athletics and doesn't even mean necessarily you are a good academic school

ACC teams (georgia tech and UNC) have none of those issues. That is where the big 10 will expand.

[Charleston Pony]

i didn't say ISU, kansas or kansas state wouldn't go - i said they wouldn't be asked - for three big reasons -
1) they have pledged their tv rights - therefore they have no value to the big 10
2) they are in po-dunk markets, therefore taking more then they give, by adding a slice to the pie
3) none of them are AAU schools - which is apparently important to Big 10 commissioner, even though it means nothing when related to athletics and doesn't even mean necessarily you are a good academic school

ACC teams (georgia tech and UNC) have none of those issues. That is where the big 10 will expand.

Big 10 interested in those Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham TV markets. Both schools acknowledge having been approached

[EastStang]

I think the B1G jumps as soon as the ACC lawsuit against UMD is over. Once that occurs, the ACC loses two schools. Then it loses probably two or three schools to the Big XII or SEC depending on whether the SEC preemptively strikes at FSU/Clemson/GT? If not, two or three of those schools leave the ACC. That leaves a weak ACC which will at that point be the old BE with a few schools added and then we look to make some sort of deal with the leftovers. The other key aspect to all of this is to remember the WAC 16 and the petty fights that erupted and ended the conference with the secret meeting at the Denver Airport. Not sure what will happen when schools like UMD find out they get a home date with Ohio State every 16 years, or Illinois has to play UNC every year. It looks good on paper, but then things start to unravel. So, part of our strategy should be to work to get better, survive and be there when the inevitable blow up occurs in some of these conferences.

[WordUpBU]

i didn't say ISU, kansas or kansas state wouldn't go - i said they wouldn't be asked - for three big reasons -
1) they have pledged their tv rights - therefore they have no value to the big 10
2) they are in po-dunk markets, therefore taking more then they give, by adding a slice to the pie
3) none of them are AAU schools - which is apparently important to Big 10 commissioner, even though it means nothing when related to athletics and doesn't even mean necessarily you are a good academic school

ACC teams (georgia tech and UNC) have none of those issues. That is where the big 10 will expand.

In addition to #2 the Big Ten kind of overlaps their markets.

Iowa-ISU

Nebraska overlaps a little in KC

[ponyboy]

The most amazing thing to me about all of this is that Tulane -- Tulane! -- may actually survive along with the best of the rest. What luck for one of the worst programs going.

[SMU_Alumni11]

I think the only favorable scenario for us is for nothing to happen. I can't think nor have I quickly read any of the posts giving us a favorable outlook....

[LHS81]

Kansas & Iowa State? Obviously, the Big 10 are counting the wheat fields as potential TV viewers.

[Water Pony]

I think the Big XII holds their members, as opposed to ACC which is under greater threat by SEC, Big Ten and Big XII, possibly. These three, along with PAC 12, are solid due to the overall strength of their FB members and alumni.