For those scared about who we graduate...

[ojaipony]

If the guys in waiting were as good as their "rivals rating" indicated, my guess is that they would already be seeing significant playing time and coaches would find a way to get them on the field.

When you get to 2 & 3 start players, it probably gets to be a bit of a crap shoot and how well they develop once in school.

I will hold this team at "CCC" status (see S&P for scaling definition) until something tells me otherwise. We just lost a lot of really good players and still have no receivers.

I agree with your last 2 paragraphs but not your first one entirely. A lot of those guys are redshirted (a luxury we haven't had in a long time) - Richards, Myers, Stewart, Lagasse, he who shall not be named, etc. The WR position is the most puzzling as to why we never played Darius Joseph or Dieter or Fuller more. (Holman, sadly, just hasn't really developed -- another guy with a very average HS career as a WR). I have high hopes for Joseph and Stewart (and maybe Guinyard and Lagasse). It would be a luxury to redshirt Taylor (Gaines probably plays right away due to his size if he can pick up the scheme, etc).

But, what do I know.

[Cadillac]

The drop off at Receiver is a bit of a mystery. Seeing DJ drop off from 2011 (where he had fewer games, but more catches, yards and TDs) indicates to me that it may have more to do with the passing game as a total than with the abilities of the receivers individually. Between the new QB, and the 4 new linemen, the changes to the receiver corps don't seem so dramatic. As a whole, the passing game dropped 500 yards compared to a season ago.

-CoS

[JasonB]

Thanks for the links to those spreadsheets. I keep my own where I retain not only the rivals rankings, but also ESPN and Scout, and also give points for multiple BCS offers. The combination of them all is how I rate recruits...

I don't think the drop at receiver is really too much of a mystery:

This year, Dieter was the only one not redshirted.

2011 Darius Joseph looks good, but Nyle Johnson didn't make it. Sams didn't make it. Sims is a converted QB and that takes time (see JJ). Ace is struggling.

2010 Collins didn't make it, Guinyard had knees, JJ is making a mark. Holman and Thompson have started. Londy didn't make it.

2009 Franklin didn't make it, Frazier didn't make it. DJ started, Joubert was a stab in the dark, McDade didn't make it.

Counting Dieter, that is 8 players at the position that either dropped out or never got on campus. Really Ace would be the only player who would be bordering on "bust" right now, and he is a good athlete still only in his second year, so I wouldn't put him there. Joubert never made an impact, but he was really a diamond in the rough level recruit.

Next year, I think Darius, Holman, thompson, and JJ are the starters coming into camp. But I think Stewart, Lagasse, and walkon Buffini will push. Ace has talent, the light may yet come on. Sims in his third year, like JJ, could be ready to take a step forward. Guinyard should be healthy. and then there are the frosh coming in.

We should be better overall at the position, but I don't think there is any question why we have struggled there this year.

[Stallion]

To be clear 6 of those WRs who "didn't make it" were non-qualifiers out of high school under NCAA rules-I think Nyle Johnson qualified the next year at midterm but then he to go back to Louisiana-could have been academics-. Nyle Johnson was last reported to be headed to Holmes CC but doesn't show up on 2012 stats. Dieter reportedly transferred for non-academic reasons as far as has been publiclly revealed. McDade was academically ineligible after 1st year. Most every one of the kids who were non-qualifiers went to JUCO. Only 2 played much-Rickey Collins who was outstanding, signed with TCU but again failed to qualify for a 2nd time at TCU and ended up at Midwestern St. Frazier got moved to LB at Cisco JC. Sams was reportedly headed to Hinds CC but again he didn't make their 2012 Stat sheet. I don't think any caught a Division 1A catch or even got a Division 1A scholarship out of JUCO. They were pretty much recruiting misses. So that makes 1 full qualifier in his high school class who left for academic reasons. As I said the first year that June signed a bunch of sign and place recruits the attrition rate on those academically borderline recruits is huge and you shouldn't really expect to get those kids back

[Lefty]

Didn't Nyle Johnson end up at Grambling, like his dad?

[Stallion]

I don't see him on their 2012 Roster. Mike Coppege at Scout who knows Louisiana as well as anyone said he was headed to Holmes CC last year.

[Lefty]

I stand corrected. Thanks!

[JasonB]

Thanks for the full info, Stallion. I think a lot of guys we might not have normally even been in the mix for, but decided to offer them as a reach to try and getting some good talent in.

In the end, those 8 players, for a variety of reasons, aren't here anymore, and that is probably why we are struggling so much at receiver.

[Stallion]

I think its alot easier to blame SMU's admission standards than it is to aggressively recruit the 95% of the top athletes who are full qualifiers.

[Rebel10]

Every single player we graduate will actually be replaced by a player who was higher regarded by recruiting services...

Robinson, Grenier, Hunt, Davis, Pittman, Davis, Reed, Rogers, Mcjunkin, Line, and Smith were all diamonds in the rough and are being replaced by players rated significantly better by recruiting services.

I realize there is a lot of concern around the current recruiting class, but we should see the benefits of the last three classes next season.

Nobody is being replaced by someone that is SIGNIFICANTLY higher rated. some are 2's and some are 3's but that is not significantly higher. In fact some will be rated the same. At this point it is about development. We will see how well the coaches have developed those replacement players. The jury is still out on Palcic so we will see how he does next year.

[Rebel10]

I think its alot easier to blame SMU's admission standards than it is to aggressively recruit the 95% of the top athletes who are full qualifiers.

Agree. SMU can get pretty much who they want admitted. Keep them in school might be another argument.

[Rebel10]

I would expect Jones at this stage of his SMU career to be able to replace outgoing seniors with better raw talent. I honestly don't know if this is the case though.

Good point because people graduate every year. After next year we lose our starting QB, 3 starting receivers, 2 staring LB's (Pope and Joyner) and 2 starting DB's. I can just hear the hard core JJ supporters saying he needs another 2 recruiting classes to replace them.

[Stallion]

this is really one of the first year's though that you got to feel there are maybe 6-8 kids riding the bench or redshirting that should be able to play well immediately. If that doesn't happen we are in big trouble. I feel better about some of those guys helping on defense though than I do on offense;

[Rebel10]

We have not out recruited anyone that much so how we do heavily depends on player development. We lose players every year and at this point we should be reloading to some degree and not totally rebuilding. As Stallion has somewhat implied that next year should tell us a lot about how we developed our players.

[ClickClack]

Good point because people graduate every year. After next year we lose our starting QB, 3 starting receivers, 2 staring LB's (Pope and Joyner) and 2 starting DB's. I can just hear the hard core JJ supporters saying he needs another 2 recruiting classes to replace them.

Look for Yenga to start in the middle over Pope.