SMU record 6-6 - prove me wrong

[ponyinNC]

SMU 6-6.
We have a brutal OOC where going 2-2 would be a great accomplishment. Likely will go 1-4.

Texas Tech (L) - we never show well in opening game, BCS talent at TT
Montana State (W) - FCS
at Texas A&M (L) - away game, SEC level talent
at TCU (L) - might be closer than some think, and I think this is our best chance to get 2nd OOC W
vs. Rutgers (Family Weekend) (L) - BCS talent
at Memphis (W) - team is better than last year, but we should win this away game
Temple (Homecoming) (W) - new coach, new QB, MAC level recruiting
at Cincinnati (L) - BCS talent, away game, hostile stadium
vs. Connecticut (W) - I don't count UCONN as BCS-level talent. Maybe I'm naive here.
at USF (L) - BCS talent, away game, hostile
at Houston (W) - Piland & Levine = SMU W. But this may be the game that gets us bowl eligible, so who knows
vs. UCF (W)

This isn't sunshine, nor is it doom and gloom. I think this is a reasonable prediction for this year. But I'd love for someone to prove me wrong, either way.

[austinponie]

8-4.
We beat Tech or TCU.
Gilbert's a year older, BCS-type transfers from UT at running back (Shead) and O-line (Ashcraft), + Hal Mumme.
Wishfull thinking, anyway...

[StallionsModelT]

I will be very happy and encouraged if we go 6-6 this season. The way I look at we have only 2 or 3 games on the schedule that we can say SMU will be a heavy favorite:

Montana State
Memphis
Temple

There are two games on the schedule in which SMU will be significant underdogs:

Texas A&M
TCU

That leaves the rest of the schedule, IMO, as tossups. I coud see every other game on the schedule going either way for SMU. So assuming we will be 3-2 of the games listed above, we need to win three games from the following opponents

Tech @ Ford
Rutgers @ Ford
Cincinnati @ Cincinnati
UConn @ Ford
USF @ USF
Houston @ Houston
UCF @ Ford

If we can win three games out of those then I will be pleased.

[ponyboy]

I think it's reasonable, NC.

[StallionsModelT]

Sunshiner prediction - (9-3)

- The Gilbert of the latter half of last season is the Gilbert we get from game one. Being more acclimated to the offense and his receivers should make Garrett a much better QB from the first snap of the season.

- Shead proves to be an All-Conference caliber runner that represents no drop-off from the departure of Line. He turns out to be the 15-20 carry a game workhorse we need.

- The WR's finally get some consistency. Jeremy Johnson steps up to be our go-to guy and we find some kind of worthwhile combination from the glut of guys we have on campus. Ja'Bryce Taylor and Jeremiah Gaines give the WR corp much-needed size and strength we need to convert in the red zone.

- Our young defensive line is up to the task in a "by committee" approach. Wood, Wright, Barnes, Minor, Reed, McCleneghan, Smith, etc

- Acker, Parks, JR Richardson combine to form a group of veteran corners that allow us to be aggressive in our blitz packages. Scott and Randolph stay healthy and give us a strong safety tandem

Doom and gloom prediction (3-9)

- Gilbert is more like the Gilbert from his previous college years than the glimmer we saw down the stretch of last season.

- Injuries to our OL expose our lack of depth and force us to play either undersized or inexperienced players not ready for the rigors of a more difficult schedule.

- Our DL is simply too young and overmatched. We can't control the line of scrimmage forcing Mason to change his attacking style to compensate for our lack of size and experience up front.

- Our secondary is hit again by the injury bug. We are forced to play Poston, Montes, or other freshmen against great passing teams like Tech, TCU, A&M, Cincinnati, and Houston.

- JJ and the coaching staff mentally "check out". We saw it last season in our no-show performances at Baylor, Tulane, Rice, and UCF.

[Junior]

how can we possibly prove you wrong at this point? alternatively, you can't prove this to be correct right now, either...

[blackoutpony]

I agree with SMT as far as what could be our peak or our valley. I think NC is pretty spot on except UCF is going to be pretty tough. That's the game I could see us losing and going 5-7. Houston is the second most likely and that's a 4-8 which would be a disaster. I would love to see us go 6-6 and think that would be a pretty big feat. I'm more inclined to set my expectations at 5-7 unfortunately.

[StallionsModelT]

IMO, we will know a lot about what kind of team we have by our performance against Texas Tech. Tech is breaking in an entirely new coaching staff and new starters at several key positions including QB. The only two home games we lost last year were to Texas A&M and TCU and our home record the last few years has actually been very good. If we beat Tech I can see this thing having the talent and confidence to go 8-4 or better. If we get our doors blown off and lose 42-10 or something like that then I can see this thing taking a serious nosedive.

There should be no excuses for not being competitive against Tech. They are a middle of the pack Big 12 team. In year six of the June Jones era we should not be getting our asses handed to us by middle of the pack teams in the Big 12. The expectation should be to win this game.

[Cougar King]

Piland may or may not start this season. He's deadlocked in a qb battle with JUCO newcomer Cosh and true freshman O'Korn.


Remember, we do have our entire offense returning plus we will have two 5 star receivers lined up. We're a darkhorse favorite to win the AAC this year for a reason. Chalking us in as a win, especially in Houston where we rarely lose, is only setting yourself up for disappointment.

[StallionsModelT]

Entire offense minus your All-Conference running back.

[Cougar King]

Entire offense minus your All-Conference running back.

Farrow and Jackson were given a lot of reps and rushed for a combined 800 yards when Sims was out with an injury. We'll be fine. QB, RB and WR are our three deepest positions on the entire roster.

[StallionsModelT]

Maybe that will be the case but you certainly can't COUNT on that. Losing Sims is a serious blow. No way around that.

[StallionsModelT]

Also, how can you possibly count QB as one of the deepest positions on the team when the QB play was so putrid for UH last season? Are there talented guys on campus down there? Yes. It has to be proven on the field. Fact of the matter is that despite a very solid group of receivers, Houston is facing major issues at QB and RB. I do think they'll be okay on the offensive line.

Houston will be better than last year but I'm nowhere near sold on Levine as a gameday coach. We will see how it works out but we saw a very uneven Houston team last year. Maybe the second year of the Levine era will be better.

[sbsmith]

Entire offense minus your All-Conference running back.

Not so much on defense where an already awful unit lost its only 2 All-Conference 1st team players.

[SMU 86]

6-6 should at least get us to the Hawaii Bowl.