Another take on JJ, this season

[ponyboy]

Vandy would beat SMU by 50.

Hardly. Vanderbilt has improved the last two years and would be about an 11 point favorite on a neutral field today. But we have outranked them in the final Congrove rankings three of the last four years by an average of 22.5 spots.

[Dukie]

Rice looks headed for its 3rd double digit winning season in recent years. Nobody has been more sucky for longer than Rice. Tulsa a lower profile program than SMU has about 5-6 season better than June Jones in a little over a decade. Your argument is ridiculous

The bottom 10 teams in the two decades post DP:

108. UTEP
109. UNLV
110. Eastern Michigan
111. Vandy
112. NM State
113. SMU
114. Duke
115. Kent State
116. Buffalo
117. Temple

Tulsa was #84 and Rice was #85 in that same time period, nearly 30 slots ahead of us.

Of that bottom 10, only Temple has outperformed SMU in the last four years.

Duke has been far suckier than Rice for the last two decades. Interestingly, Duke hired David Cutcliffe the same year SMU hired June Jones. I don't really care about arguing whether Duke's 5-7 and 6-7 2011 and 2012 seasons in the ACC are better than SMU's (very slightly) higher win totals in CUSA during those seasons. What I do care about is that Duke's steady improvement exposes the complete lie that is the "culture of losing for decades is so hard to overcome" defense of JJ. If Duke, currently 6-2 after a win at then-#14 Virginia Tech, can overcome it, then anyone can.

[ponyboy]

Right, you were the same amount of suck as SMU in the 20 years before our two coaches arrived.

But let's take a look at what Cutcliffe has done versus JJ. From the 2009 through 2012 seasons, Duke's final Congrove rankings have been the following (SMU rank in parenthesis):

2009: 85 (55)
2010: 102 (66)
2011: 101 (42)
2012: 77 (62)

Yes, Duke's currently sitting at #42 with their 6-2 record. But SMU's averaged a full 40 slots higher than Duke over the last four years. I'll take JJ, thanks.

[dr rc]

But we have outranked them in the final Congrove rankings three of the last four years by an average of 22.5 spots.

yea, that has NOTHING to do with Duke and Vandy playing in MUCH tougher conferences.

Nothing at all all.

[Dukie]

Right, you were the same amount of suck as SMU in the 20 years before our two coaches arrived.

But let's take a look at what Cutcliffe has done versus JJ. From the 2009 through 2012 seasons, Duke's final Congrove rankings have been the following (SMU rank in parenthesis):

2009: 85 (55)
2010: 102 (66)
2011: 101 (42)
2012: 77 (62)

Yes, Duke's currently sitting at #42 with their 6-2 record. But SMU's averaged a full 40 slots higher than Duke over the last four years. I'll take JJ, thanks.

Having followed both programs closely, I will tell you that you have no idea how bare the Duke cupboard was after Ted Roof went 6-45 from 2003-07. No Marguses, no Beasleys, precious few Robinsons. Cutcliffe also gritted his teeth and kept his early classes' redshirts intact, and paid for it with short-term results in years 2-4. Now Duke is a senior-laden and deep team that can handle things like, for example, losing its senior starting QB for four games this season. Cutcliffe also managed to handle things like other schools courting him without, for example, any Duke recruits transferring to Tennessee while those talks were ongoing.

So yes, I enjoyed the Hawaii Bowls also, but JJ has not built a sustainable program. Cutcliffe has Duke in far better shape going forward.

[Arkpony]

Can we hire him?

[Grant Carter]

Right, you were the same amount of suck as SMU in the 20 years before our two coaches arrived.

But let's take a look at what Cutcliffe has done versus JJ. From the 2009 through 2012 seasons, Duke's final Congrove rankings have been the following (SMU rank in parenthesis):

2009: 85 (55)
2010: 102 (66)
2011: 101 (42)
2012: 77 (62)

Yes, Duke's currently sitting at #42 with their 6-2 record. But SMU's averaged a full 40 slots higher than Duke over the last four years. I'll take JJ, thanks.

Do you own stock in Congrove?


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[gostangs]

Ponyboy - I am fine with you taking up for JJ - but I don't think you can say he has done everything you could possible expect. He has not done many things I would reasonably expect

- we have won almost zero games vs good competition
- he has never committed to recruiting the way we all know you must, particularly in this state
- he has been neutral to hostile to embracing SMU community - all the things ANYBODY would do
- he has stubbornly held to his history of only hiring cronies
- he will not run a power-set in short ydg situations - almost cost us the cheap wins we have
- has not been the magnet for QB's you would have thought
- took him 5 yrs to give up on the walk of shame

I have enjoyed many of his teams and many games during his tenure. I think he is a pretty good person and very loyal to his players and anyone who has worked with him. He was a good hire by those that brought him on board. He is not so loyal to SMU - and the debacle of our recruits showing up at ASU out of nowhere will be a stain on him for most of us. coaches take other jobs all the time, but that was just wrong.

It would not be very hard to imagine a better run by someone else.

[SMU2007]

Then they are stupid to expect that after two decades of deeply ingrained suckness -- one could argue for sixty years of suckness with just a brief daliance with the devil in the early 1980's. Few seem to understand how hard institutional cultural change really is. You don't just show up and flip a switch.

completely agree.

[Arkpony]

SMU did NOT suck for 60 years! During the 50s and 60s, we mayhave not won a lot of games but we were always capable of beating anybody.. And often did.

[redpony]

IIRC - during those years we were about mid-level in the SWC. That would be = to the b12 today (more or less). And in the last few years (CUSA) we struggled to get to the top of a 'trash' conference.

[JasonB]

Duke wins:

2009: Army, NC Central, Maryland, NC State, Virginia
2010: Elon, navy, Virginia
2011: BC, Tulane, FIU
2012: FIU, NC Central, Memphis, Wake, Virginia, UNC
2013: NC Central, Memphis, Troy, Navy, Virginia, VT

On one hand, I will say that Duke has beaten some okay teams in there... most of the wins are against teams who struggled mightily that particular season, though, and a high percentage against NC Central. Lost to Richmond a couple of times, FYI.

On the other, the OOC schedule of Duke is incredibly soft. They are doing everything possible to win 4 non-conference games so that they only have to win two in conference in order to go to a bowl.

You absolutely have to start somewhere though. It starts with cupcake non-conference, and try to get in a bowl. Then get to 10 wins. Then worry about quality of opponents non-conference.

[Rebel10]

Then they are stupid to expect that after two decades of deeply ingrained suckness -- one could argue for sixty years of suckness with just a brief daliance with the devil in the early 1980's. Few seem to understand how hard institutional cultural change really is. You don't just show up and flip a switch.

completely agree.

6 years is not just showing up and flipping a switch. I think we may have plateaued at 6 or 7 regular season wins. That will get SMU left of of any P5 expansion.

[ponyboy]

But we have outranked them in the final Congrove rankings three of the last four years by an average of 22.5 spots.

yea, that has NOTHING to do with Duke and Vandy playing in MUCH tougher conferences.

Nothing at all all.

Congrove or Sagarin take into consideration strength of schedule.

[ponyboy]

Cutcliffe has Duke in far better shape going forward.

That's possible. My point still stands that it's HARD to turn a perennial loser around. I'll be hoping Duke is one of those exceptions.