Stallion wrote:The Mind of too Many Ponyfans: If we raised the number of AAC teams ranked above 100 in computer bowls from 4 to about 8 then we'd have a great shot at the BCS. How about instead we build a program worthy of earning true BCS respect
Still complaining about dropping Baylor, I see. How about we build a program worthy of earning true BCS respect? Let's do that - let's see how the Purple People in Ft. Worthless did it. You always talk about following their Model so let's see what they did on their rise to see their schedule (non-conference):
1998:
Iowa State (3-8)
Oklahoma (5-6)
Vanderbilt (2-9)
This is exactly what our 2013 non-conference looked like when we set it up: Tech seemed like they would be a .500 Big 12 team (OU), and A&M and Baylor seemed like they would be poor Big 12 teams (Iowa State and Vanderbilt). Obviously, things changed from the time we scheduled the games.
1999:
Arizona (6-6)
Northwestern (3-8)
Arkansas State (4-7)
North Texas (2-9)
Now THAT is an embarrassing schedule, but it allowed TCU 2 wins on the route to an 8 win season and TCU thus built on their momentum from the year before.
2000:
Northwestern (8-4)
Arkansas State (1-10)
Navy (1-10)
One decent team and two horrible teams. Three wins for TCU on the way to their first 10 win season since 1938.
2001 (they moved to CUSA in this year):
Nebraska (11-2)
North Texas (5-7)
SMU (4-7)
Northwestern State (I-AA)
They tried for a win against a major power in this year...only after completing their first 10 win season...and they ensured that they scheduled bad teams to fill out the rest of their non-conference. They ended up 6-6 after winning two of their non-conference games - they lost to Northwestern State.
2002:
Northwestern (3-9)
SMU (3-9)
North Texas (8-5)
The best way to get back on the 10-win track: schedule easy games in non-conference (the SMU and UNT games both ended up as fairly close games for TCU). They picked up another 10 win season this year - their second in three years.
2003:
Navy (8-5)
Vanderbilt (2-10)
Arizona (2-10)
SMU (0-12)
TCU racked up an 11-win season this year, and they beat SEC and PAC teams on the way to that mark. Of course, the SEC and PAC teams were the dregs of their conference, not power teams. Those games are similar to the Washington State games that we scheduled in past years.
2004:
Northwestern (6-6)
SMU (3-8)
Texas Tech (8-4)
TCU slid back to 5-6 this year, but that was mainly due to poor performance in conference. This was the first time that they scheduled a Big 12 team since 1998 - and they didn't pick a Big 12 team that truly competed for a division title either. That game, by the way, was a classic. TCU got off to a 21-0 lead before Tech scored 56 straight points en route to a 70-35 final in Lubbock.
2005 (TCU moved to the MWC this year):
Oklahoma (8-4)
SMU (5-6)
Army (4-7)
TCU balanced their schedule with what they thought was going to be a game against a national title contender (OU was coming off an Orange Bowl appearance) with two games that they thought would be easy (TCU ended up losing to SMU after they pulled off the upset against an OU team that wasn't as good as advertised).
2006:
Baylor (4-8)
Cal-Davis (I-AA)
Texas Tech (8-5)
Army (3-9)
They put two Big 12 teams on the schedule for the first time in 2006 (coming off an 11 win season for TCU). Tech was a solid but not great team - Baylor was still pretty bad. Cal-Davis and Army were simply bad teams meant to pad wins.
2007:
Baylor (3-9)
Texas (10-3)
SMU (1-11)
Stanford (4-8)
What do you do when you put a national championship contender on the schedule? Pad the rest of the schedule with weak teams.
2008:
SFA (FCS)
Stanford (5-7)
SMU (1-11)
Oklahoma (12-2)
What do you do when you put a national championship contender on the schedule? Pad the rest of the schedule with weak teams. Stanford was better than advertised in 2008, but they still didn't even make a bowl.
2009:
Virginia (3-9)
Texas State (FCS)
Clemson (9-5)
SMU (8-5)
Two weak teams, one meant to build some credibility (Virginia) while still padding the win total, the other being an easy win. One legitimate BCS conference contender (Clemson) and one game against SMU who was expected to be OK but maybe not an 8 win team in 2009). Not exactly a strong schedule.
2010:
Oregon State (5-7)
Tennessee Tech (FCS)
Baylor (7-6)
SMU (7-7)
Two middling BCS conference teams, SMU - who was solid but not great, and an FCS school. Now THAT's challenging and "worthy of earning true BCS respect."
2011:
Baylor (10-3)
ULM (4-8)
Portland State (FCS)
SMU (8-5)
Baylor was expected to be a middling BCS team, but they were on their way up and beat TCU en-route to their best season in many years. SMU was getting better, so TCU threw in a bad Sun Belt program as well as an FCS school.
TCU moved to the B12 in 2012 and finally had a challenging conference schedule, so I won't analyze their non-conference in 2012 and 2013.
The fact is that the TCU Model that you advocate includes scheduling a certain way: schedule easy games to rack up wins in seasons where you are building the program, then over time, start to challenge teams perceived as being one level above your program. The fact is that the TCU Model does not say that "Who you play is more important than winning or losing." You advocating the TCU Model and simultaneously bashing SMU for trying to schedule the way TCU did on their way up is simply hypocritical. TCU waited to have a true challenge on their schedule until they were good and ready.
Don't get me wrong, I would have loved to play Baylor this year. But we needed to get a win somewhere and A&M didn't let us out of the contract to go down there. Over time, we need to ensure that we structure the schedule the way TCU did on their way up. Baby steps: Beat crap teams first, challenge good teams later.