June Jones, by the numbers...

[JasonB]

Had some time tonight, so I decided to take a look at some things and thought folks would be interested in the numbers.

First, the get off to a slow start thing is kind of bogus. The fact is, whenever we play decent teams we suck, and always have ever since the death penalty. There is very little change in the percentages when we play good teams early or late; we pretty much always lose. I know some people don't want to let that go, but for the most part, we just don't play decent teams late in the season.

I looked at the history of Bennett, Cavan, and Jones at SMU. Using the Massey rankings as a guide, I list the records of each coach against teams ranked 0-39, 40-69, 70-99, and then 100+.

C: 0-10, 6-12, 4-7, 10-5
B: 1-10, 1-16, 3-11, 12-15
J: 2-12, 4-14, 4-6, 26-7

There are a couple of things that really stand out:

1) Either Cavan was a horrible recruiter, or leaving the SWC busted us, or a combo of both. He was 5-5 against 40-69 in the first two years, and 1-7 after that. He was using Rossley/SWC recruits the first two years and then things absolutely tanked.

2) Bennett was not a great coach here by any measure. His 6-6 season, the schedule they played was ridiculously easy. His last season, it was almost as easy and the team tanked. A losing record against teams ranked over 100 says a lot.

3) The performance of the team under Jones is remarkably consistent. The record against sub 100 teams is fantastic, especially when you consider we are 25-4 when you take out his first year. That is probably due to an uptick in recruiting as well as better coaching.

4) From a program standpoint, we would like to see progression. When June came, we struggled at all levels. You want to fix the under 100 problem, then improve from 70-90, then 40-60, and finally 0-40. I am going to leave out 0-40 for now, because obviously aren't there, but here are the records for the other categories year by year:

2008 0-5, 0-1, 1-3
2009: 1-2, 1-1, 6-1
2010: 0-3, 2-2, 4-1
2011: 1-0, 1-1, 5-0
2012: 2-1, 0-1, 5-1
2013: 0-3, 0-0, 5-1

We obviously made and continue great strides in the 100+ category (Rutgers has fallen into 100+ and is our lone loss there this season).

We started to make some good progress in the 70-90 range as well, but then the competition in that area has gone away, and can't really be evaluated.

The real problem is in the 40-60 range. The losses this year to Tech, Cincy, and TCU are a step back at a high level, however if you take a deeper look:

- outside of the first year, June is 4-9 against teams in that range.
- 0-7 on the road, 2-0 on neutral sites, and 2-2 at home.

So, I would tend to argue that we haven't taken a step back this year so much as instead of getting the mediocre teams here, we are going on the road to play them, and losing just like usual. We had a 50-50 shot of beating Tech statistically, and didn't.

The problem of course is that in the next two games, we play at #60 Houston with out our starting QB, and then are home against #30 UCF. So the odds of us winning one of those games and going bowling is pretty low.

The question to everyone out there:
- If we lose to Houston and UCF, it is just another sign of program stagnation, not necessarily sign of a step back. Do we need to actually take a step back before making a coaching change, or is stagnation a reason to change?

- If so, if we beat Houston or UCF, is that enough of a sign of progress to not make a move?

For me personally, I had us at 7-3 at this point going into the season. I expected us to take a step forward and beat Tech and beat Rutgers. The Rutgers game is the big step back this season - we are typically automatic against lower ranked teams at home. If we finish 5-7, I would be really disappointed and would support a change, although I wouldn't necessarily be barging down the door with a pitchforks and torches demanding it.

Houston and UCF are both better than anticipated this season. I am not going to burn Jones for losses without Gilbert, because as much as I like Burcham, I don't think he is ready. If we were to upset one of those teams and win one of those games, it makes up for one of the unexpected losses, and I think it makes it difficult to make a change. Although I wouldn't oppose it at this point. Win both games, and there is no way we would make a change, IMHO.

Either way, the performance at LB, Special Teams, RB, and OL has certainly been a disappointment. The OL is going to get exposed more in these last two games without Gilbert I think. At minimum, I would expect to see some position coach changes to address those problems.

[smusic 00]

Interesting. I have had one too many to offer an insightful reply, but I think it points to the conclusion most if us have drawn: plateau.

[feelthehorsepower]

Great analysis. But I still insist that it is too slow. We should be making headway in beating teams in the mid range and not losing at all to teams in the lower tier. I expected us to be beating top 30 teams 6 years into June Jones hiring. It hasn't happened yet, and am hopeful it will happen next year and the following years. Let's see.

[Lebanese4Life]

all your numbers just prove what all of us have been saying. we wont improve w/ June Jones here. Great, we beat teams ranked 100+ consistently. No one cares about that. In year 6 I expected us to be at least hanging with 0-40.

[mustangxc]

That Rutgers loss was pretty crushing both because it was Rutgers and because we had it won twice in OT and just couldn't stop them on 4th down two different times. Cincinnati would have made up for TCU or Tech.

[GiddyUp]

TCU was his only quality win in the regular season. Tech with padron should have been better. Our Teams never seem ready against good opponents and always make mistakes. Cinn would have been decent. I expect a beatdown today b/c we are on the road. I sure hope I get surprised.

[sbsmith]

The question to everyone out there:
- If we lose to Houston and UCF, it is just another sign of program stagnation, not necessarily sign of a step back. Do we need to actually take a step back before making a coaching change, or is stagnation a reason to change?

- If so, if we beat Houston or UCF, is that enough of a sign of progress to not make a move?

June's status can't come down to a result in either of these final two games. Whether June comes back or not depends on what the brain trust wants for the program. If it's national relevance then June needs to go, if it's continued irrelevance then June needs to stay.

[Mustangsabu]

We are not going to be nationally relevant. Being heard of is about all we can ask. Just need to improve and start winning the AAC

[sbsmith]

We are not going to be nationally relevant. Being heard of is about all we can ask. Just need to improve and start winning the AAC

We can certainly be nationally relevant with the right staff, even AAC titles aren't on the table until we find that staff.

[ponyscott]

Thanks for looking all of that up for us....it just tells us all what we already know that June won't recruit well enough to compete against teams with winning records. SMU wins vs. the teams with losing records ( and almost never blows those lowly teams away) and so what? We need a younger energetic coach who WILL recruit with enthusiasm for SMU.

[mustangxc]

The one great thing June has managed to do for SMU, and a reason why everyone should want us to win today and/or next week, is that six wins is the minimum standard for an SMU football coach. A bottom of the barrel season for SMU should have us winning six games and going bowling. If he achieves nothing more than that, then I would say he definitely left us in a better position than when he got here. Going forward, every new SMU football coach knows that we can realistically expect to go bowling every year. Even one bowl seemed like a pipe dream before June got here. Has he fulfilled his promise of Top 25 and BCS buster? Absolutely not, but he is also not without merit.

[78pony]

Wow, Jason. Those 6 hour delays at the airport late at night must be killers. I can condense for you. Jones is a .500+/- coach who has underperformed and been paid well to do so. We are at a point where after climbing half way up the hill, we have run out of gas and can only keep from going backwards as long as the emergency brake holds up (not long). We all know what's ahead and we either admit it or empersonate flamingos.

[Mustangsabu]

Thanks for that info Jason, it provides some food for thought and much ammunition for those entrenched.

I guess my version of nationally relevant might be different to some. For example I don't consider Fresno State, NIU or even really Boise nationally relevant in a consistent way. Sure I hope some day we can be Media darlings once in a while but my bottom line is we are going to play the majority of games against teams who no one but us cares about. And that's ok.

[RGV Pony]

'Membah when we all thought wed be media darlings and capture Dallas' imagination if we could just put the DP behind us and get to a bowl?

[mrydel]

'Membah when we all thought wed be media darlings and capture Dallas' imagination if we could just put the DP behind us and get to a bowl?

It just takes a few years for Dallas to learn the system.