Article on SEC Network/future of realignment

[East Coast Mustang]

http://outkickthecoverage.com/sec-netwo ... launch.php

Clay Travis is a [deleted], but he's also been pretty spot-on on predicting conference realignment trends and the "business" of college football. He predicts (as I have before, prematurely) that because of the absolute boatload of money SEC schools are going to make from the SEC Network (estimated at around $28.5M per year per school- that's just for SEC Network, doesnt include their CBS deal) that more schools will eventually join the SEC to get it to 16 teams, likely from VA and NC, and likely Virginia Tech and NC State. Of course, the ACC (and Big 12) schools just signed that Grant of Rights which supposedly prohibits any schools from leaving the conference until after 2026-2027 season. Of course, how ironclad is that GoR? Would a school be brazen enough to break it in search of SEC riches? See here: http://outkickthecoverage.com/myth-of-t ... rights.php

Point is, SMU needs to get their [deleted] together in football, and fast. Basketball is progressing along nicely, but of course football is what steers the boat.

My prediction is that the next round of realignment will see Va. Tech and NC State going to the SEC, Notre Dame and UVA joining the Big Ten, and Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State going to the Pac-12, with the "best of the rest" from the Big 12 and ACC joining together, which would look something like this:

East- UNC, Duke, Wake, BC, Syracuse, Clemson, FSU, Miami
West- Clemson, WVU, Louisville, TCU, Baylor, KSU, Kansas, Pittsburgh

Looks like Iowa State could be the odd man out. Now, does UCF, Cincinnati, or even a resurgent SMU get consideration in this conference over the likes of somebody like Wake Forest? How bound together will the leftovers of the Big 12 and ACC be to each other? Even if there is an opening (wishful thinking) there will be a lot of people clamoring for that last seat on the lifeboat. Time to get serious. I think Rick Hart is a good AD and is cognizant of the situation. Hopefully our next university President will have a vision for getting SMU into a better conference.

Sorry for the 4,683rd realignment thread. It's January, and it's not like there's much to discuss with respect to recruiting.

[feelthehorsepower]

I don't think Iowa State will get left out. If anything TCU and Baylor would be left behind in favor of Iowa State and possibly a UCF or Cincinnati.
TCU will probably end up in the MWC again and Baylor would try to hopelessly sue the Big 12 to prevent it from breaking apart. Baylor will end up in the American Athletic Conference if no one else grabs them.

Great links by the way. Crazy how the SEC is about to make $40 million per school (STARTING) !

[East Coast Mustang]

I don't think Iowa State will get left out. If anything TCU and Baylor would be left behind in favor of Iowa State and possibly a UCF or Cincinnati.
TCU will probably end up in the MWC again and Baylor would try to hopelessly sue the Big 12 to prevent it from breaking apart. Baylor will end up in the American Athletic Conference if no one else grabs them.

I'm going to take a quick break from my moratorium on acknowledging your hopelessly ignorant posts to try and educate you on some pretty basic things:

1. Texas is a huge media market
2. Iowa isn't
3. Conferences value huge media markets moreso than smaller ones
4. Schools would rather play in and have access to TX for recruiting purposes than Iowa
5. Baylor and TCU are both immensely more attractive to a conference than Iowa State

[blackoutpony]

I don't think Iowa State will get left out. If anything TCU and Baylor would be left behind in favor of Iowa State and possibly a UCF or Cincinnati.
TCU will probably end up in the MWC again and Baylor would try to hopelessly sue the Big 12 to prevent it from breaking apart. Baylor will end up in the American Athletic Conference if no one else grabs them.

I'm going to take a quick break from my moratorium on acknowledging your hopelessly ignorant posts to try and educate you on some pretty basic things:

1. Texas is a huge media market
2. Iowa isn't
3. Conferences value huge media markets moreso than smaller ones
4. Schools would rather play in and have access to TX for recruiting purposes than Iowa
5. Baylor and TCU are both immensely more attractive to a conference than Iowa State

It's so hard to ignore him sometimes..... You are absolutely right

[rodrod5]

1. the idiot "lawyer" on out kick the coverage is a total and complete moron and is the type of lawyer that every lawyer on earth dreams of going against in any court case because he is so stupid and off base it is laughable

2. the Big 10 paid out 25.7 million per team TOTAL the last time that conference distributions were made and the Big 10 network contributed 7.6 million dollars of that figure

http://btn.com/2013/05/06/report-big-te ... 7-million/

so while the SEC is sports country and football crazy it is extremely difficult to believe that the SEC network is going to pay out nearly 3 million dollars per year more than the ENTIRE Big 10 payout was including their CBS contract, their Big 10 network payments, their CCG payout and their NCAA bowl and basketball and other playoff and tournament monies

especially when the Big 10 network is basically the second tier rights holder of Big 10 media while the SEC network is going to be 3rd in line after CBS and then ESPN

3. numbers like this are a total and complete joke and the SEC itself proves that people that report numbers for conference TV contracts are ignorant fools

there was all the talk about the vaunted "look in" for the SEC contract for adding two teams and all the new money they would be getting......then Neal Paulson the former president of CBS sports came out and said that was incorrect and there was not a "look in" that allowed for huge new money or a totally new contract and after the first full season of Texas A&M and Missouri in the SEC when it all came out the SEC paid out slightly less then the Big 10 and about the exact same as the Big 12 (before counting any 3rd tier money for any Big 12 teams) and even more so when the PAC 12 numbers and their vaunted PAC 12 network came out they were well under the Big 10, SEC, Big 12 and closer to the ACC

and the expected monies for the PAC 12 this next coming payout (including all bowl money and NCAA tournament as well as all tiers of TV) is still projected to be below what the Big 12 and others paid out for the last go around of payouts and that is including if the Big 12 make their distributions even (without TCU and WVU getting a lesser payout for 2 years) and without any 3rd tier money for any Big 12 team

http://www.goducks.com/ViewArticle.dbml ... =205705405

the Big 12 paid out 198 million or 19.8 million per team (excluding any 3rd tier money) last go around and the PAC 12 paid out 14.74 and expects to pay out 18.43 million for the next go around (or less than the Big 12 and others paid out last go around)

4. I doubt it will be cut down to 64 teams especially since there are currently 64 teams in the major conferences PLUS ND and I just do not see the major conferences really looking to ditch any of their current conference mates and let them go down to some lower division

some can say that Baylor, KSU, ISU and others may have been at risk the last go around, but those people really do not understand that Texas OU and others were really not looking to bust up the Big 12 or get away from anyone (Texas A&M was yes and Missouri was just in a panic), but they were wanting to make sure that they were not stuck getting a much lower payout or stuck in a conference that was not competitive......once it was clear they could get what they needed right where they were at the rest was a non-issue no matter what others believe

as to SMU specifically 64 or 65 teams is just too few that leaves way too many teams that have to take 4-5 losses a year or more so that other teams can have 11-1 or 12-0 seasons and a lot of these teams realize this Vandy or Wake or Duke are willing to go 4-8 many seasons and have a "break out" 9-3 season every 10 years, but they are not going to sit back and take 2-10 and 1-11 and have a "break out" 6-6 season every ten years for any amount of money because the reality is TV money is only a small fraction of money for most teams in the SEC and Big 10 and Big 10 especially the top teams and even the lower teams have a lot of revenue besides TV money.......if the wins become NEVER that money will dry up completely and things will just get worse

80 teams will be the min that is going to make a move and possibly even 96 that is 5 16 team conferences or 6 16 team conferences and really probably not all of them will be 16 teams since it is going to be discovered that 16 teams sucks (like the WAC found out) and there is no need to be in with 16 damn teams when you play some of them every 6 years or so.......better to have 8 or 10 or 12 teams and perhaps work and inter-conference scheduling deal if you need that

plus too many conference games means you do not have enough chances to go OOC and have OOC wins and bring strength back to the conference with those wins before you beat yourself up in conference

5. I believe that academics will play a part in the future because that is one area that teams/conferences/divisions can make changes and NOT face anti-trust allegations and the reality is graduation rates, codling mental invalids and generally having mush mouthed waste of oxygen wasting space in college classrooms is less and less popular especially as the "get paid" argument comes up more and more and people point out that college educations cost a great deal and most of these buffoons would not be in college (since they can't spell it) and they are wasting time and space there already so why in the hell would you pay them for that as well

this is where SMU has a large advantage because major programs are not really interested in moving up programs that let in any partial qualifier and that have extremely easy academics while they are either trying to clean their own athletic academics up or they are already under a great deal of heat for their athletic academics and can't cheat it any more or push any more morons through the system without it exploding

I think that Tulane, possibly Tulsa, Rice and SMU and some others will get the move up specifically because that will be a part of "academics matter" while some that I will not name that have successful athletics and easier academics (on the whole for the university not just the athletics of the university) will probably be left behind......no one wants to be in with some of these schools while leaving Duke, Rice, Vandy, Northwestern, SMU and others behind especially when Stanford and a few others are going to make the move up no matter what and they have NO interest in being one of only 2 or 3 private schools in the top division while in with a bunch of diploma mills that happen to have had a run of athletic success

the Big 10, ACC, SEC or PAC 12 are not going to kick out any of their private schools period and really the Big 12 has no interest in really dumping Baylor or TCU for who?.....UH, CSU BYU and ?........and no I am not saying those 3 are diploma mills with questionable academics (and really only one can argue any real long term athletics success), but that just proves the point that the choices of who to dump and who to pick up if you are going to have 64 teams is pretty bad for some conferences because while you might get "TV market" (always questionable for some that have not already made it into a big conference) and you might get "big state supported U" you might also get programs that have not had a history of athletics success or fan and financial support and you probably at best will be making a even trade on academics for going through the trouble of ditching teams.......not going to happen, not worth it, makes it too difficult to use the real useful tool of academics to make the clean break

at the end of the day SMU needs to work on wins and especially fan support<<<<<especially and the rest is going to fall how it falls, but at least SMU will be able to say it was not because they did not try

[feelthehorsepower]

I don't think Iowa State will get left out. If anything TCU and Baylor would be left behind in favor of Iowa State and possibly a UCF or Cincinnati.
TCU will probably end up in the MWC again and Baylor would try to hopelessly sue the Big 12 to prevent it from breaking apart. Baylor will end up in the American Athletic Conference if no one else grabs them.

I'm going to take a quick break from my moratorium on acknowledging your hopelessly ignorant posts to try and educate you on some pretty basic things:

1. Texas is a huge media market
2. Iowa isn't
3. Conferences value huge media markets moreso than smaller ones
4. Schools would rather play in and have access to TX for recruiting purposes than Iowa
5. Baylor and TCU are both immensely more attractive to a conference than Iowa State

1-2-3)Texas is a huge media market that UT, Texas Tech and Aggy carry...not TCU, Baylor or SMU...fan bases are too small and impact not that big.
Iowa State carries a larger fan base than those two schools combined apart from being a large state school in a state with no professional sports.
Conferences do value huge media markets, therefore the state of Iowa which is split between Iowa and Iowa State is a pretty significant market.

4) This is the only point that I will agree with you.

5) 41. Iowa State $152.1 million

57. Baylor $85.9 million
60. Texas Christian $77.3 million

[East Coast Mustang]

Iowa's population is 3 million. Texas is 26 million and it's one of the fastest growing states in the nation.

Re-shun.

[feelthehorsepower]

Iowa's population is 3 million. Texas is 26 million and it's one of the fastest growing states in the nation.

Re-shun.

And Baylor/TCU have a combined 80,000 fans out of those 26 Million Texans.

Iowa State brings 60k to their games and have tons of alumni fans as well as half the state!



State Schools > Private schools in terms of fan base.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SMU2007]

oh god... not the realignment threads again.....

how much is scout/rivals a month?

[Pony81]

RodRod5 you make the most cogent description of the pros and cons of conference realignment that I have ever read.

Well done!

You are on the mark - the NCAA needs to maintain the "academic" fig leaf in the form of the elite private schools to show that the NCAA is based on the university not the semi pro model.

Plus, as you point out, can you imagine the discussion an AD has with his head coach when he tells him private school, patsy U is no longer on the schedule. Not happening.

Bottom line is that fans come to see their team win and teams can't have a situation where 6-6 is the best case scenario.

I agree - when big state U understands the win / loss math they will cut the small schools in tp the bigger pie.

[SMU89]

Anyone hear from chip brown

[zimo]

It's so hard to predict how the dominoes are going to fall. No one predicted that Maryland and Rutgers were going to be the Big Ten's top choices in their last expansion.

[blackoutpony]

Iowa's population is 3 million. Texas is 26 million and it's one of the fastest growing states in the nation.

Re-shun.

And Baylor/TCU have a combined 80,000 fans out of those 26 Million Texans.

Iowa State brings 60k to their games and have tons of alumni fans as well as half the state!



State Schools > Private schools in terms of fan base.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ISU set a record a few years for their attendance which was 56K. The stadium ONLY HAS 45K SEATS. They have around 50K at games.

STOP MAKING THINGS UP!!!!!!!

[East Coast Mustang]

I think ISU does actually draw in the 56K range, but the village idiot fails to realize the big picture (again). TV markets are ALWAYS bigger and more valuable than who draws the most in attendance- it's why we're in the American along with Tulane and Southern Miss is still in CUSA. It's why Rutgers and Maryland got invited to the Big Ten and not West Virginia

[East Coast Mustang]

oh god... not the realignment threads again.....

how much is scout/rivals a month?

Nobody put a gun to your head and made you click on the link. Some people (not FTHP) actually have some insightful stuff to say about the topic