SMU needs how many wins for smallest postseason tournament?

[LA_Mustang]

Win the five against the conference cellar dwellers and we are in the NIT. Win those five and split with Houston and one other (Memphis, Louisville or Cincinnati) and we are in the NCAA. Win five against the cellar dwellers, beat Houston and UConn twice and split with one of the others and we have a decent seed in the NCAA.

I would agree with that. Also, we need to at least win our first round game of the AAC tourney. If we're on the bubble, we need to make it to the semis.

[Rebel10]

Sounds like 20 wins and SMU is definitely going somewhere.

[OhioBrownFan]

What would be the minimum for the the NIT or CBI?

It's invite-only. There is no criteria. There's teams that are barely over .500 that get into the NIT so you can't really answer that question. Too many moving parts, winning the right games means as much as not losing to the bad teams.

Okay we at least need to be 1 game over .500. That would probably be 17 games so 2 more should lock up some type of post season invite at least to the NIT or CBI you would think.

You don't want a losing streak heading into invites either. It's complicated. I wouldn't worry about it, I'd say it is a 99% probability they are in the NIT barring a complete collapse. There's at least 5 more easy wins on that schedule from here on out.

[Harry0569]

To be honest, I am only worried about how many (quality) wins it takes us to get into the Big Dance.

[mathman]

24-7 Expected RPI = 37
23-8 Expected RPI = 45
22-9 Expected RPI = 53

I would say we need 9 wins to feel safe. We go 8-4 over the next 12 to feel okay but def on the bubble. Win 7 and on outside looking in.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/SMU.html

That is a great link!! Thanks for sharing.

[Rebel10]

To be honest, I am only worried about how many (quality) wins it takes us to get into the Big Dance.

Fair enough. I was just asking to get the entry level point of any post season play.

[SMUstang07]

24-7 Expected RPI = 37
23-8 Expected RPI = 45
22-9 Expected RPI = 53

I would say we need 9 wins to feel safe. We go 8-4 over the next 12 to feel okay but def on the bubble. Win 7 and on outside looking in.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/SMU.html

That is a great link!! Thanks for sharing.

They update RPI by the minute and the forecast daily. So definitely a go to one

[Harry0569]

To be honest, I am only worried about how many (quality) wins it takes us to get into the Big Dance.

Fair enough. I was just asking to get the entry level point of any post season play.

And it's a completely fair question to ask, so by no means was I poopooing the question.

[Pony147]

According to the RPI forecasting site, we have a 58% chance of beating Memphis at home, but only a 35% chance on the road. Nice home court advantage!

[JasonB]

We are absolutely going to go somewhere.

I think we have to sweep Houston and then beat Louisville, Memphis or Cincy to get in the NCAA. If we lose to Houston this weekend, we have to either win two of those games or make a pretty good run in the conference tourney.

[SMU 86]

We are absolutely going to go somewhere.

I think we have to sweep Houston and then beat Louisville, Memphis or Cincy to get in the NCAA. If we lose to Houston this weekend, we have to either win two of those games or make a pretty good run in the conference tourney.

So what would it take to get to the NIT?

[Pony ^]

we won't need to worry. We're going to the big one!!

[OhioBrownFan]

We are absolutely going to go somewhere.

I think we have to sweep Houston and then beat Louisville, Memphis or Cincy to get in the NCAA. If we lose to Houston this weekend, we have to either win two of those games or make a pretty good run in the conference tourney.

So what would it take to get to the NIT?

How can anyone possibly know that? If they win 7 more but none of the big ones, they're probably in. But even so, there's so many moving parts. Other teams and how they do, when SMU loses will play a role, how they do in the AAC tourney, ect...

[SMU Section F]

I'd say NCAA will require that we continue to take care of business PLUS get at least one additional high-quality win. (Maybe we could sustain one bad loss, but we'd need to compensate somehow.) To be honest, SMU has actually done well better than the norm at avoiding a bad loss so far... I don't know why, but I'm worried about dropping one to Temple. They're bad, but Fran Dunphy isn't. (And that would be a horrible loss this year.)

I'd say our current trajectory has us on pace to easily get an NIT bid (if not barely squeaking into the NCAA tournament). 20+ wins but nothing particularly impressive except UConn, which we were projected to win.

We'd have to backslide a bit to miss a tournament completely, but I don't really care about anything but the NCAA tournament anyway. (Although the NIT would be a satisfactory consolation prize.)

EDIT: Edited to add that I think SMU's performance in the AAC tournament will end up having a significant impact on our potential postseason. We could add some quality wins there or flame-out horribly; either way that'll be the last thing selection committees see.

[SMU 86]

We are absolutely going to go somewhere.

I think we have to sweep Houston and then beat Louisville, Memphis or Cincy to get in the NCAA. If we lose to Houston this weekend, we have to either win two of those games or make a pretty good run in the conference tourney.

So what would it take to get to the NIT?

How can anyone possibly know that? If they win 7 more but none of the big ones, they're probably in. But even so, there's so many moving parts. Other teams and how they do, when SMU loses will play a role, how they do in the AAC tourney, ect...

I was just asking his opinion.