25%

[ponyinNC]

Good info thx.

Send to hart, please!

[JasonB]

Stallion, this is really interesting statistical analysis.

More numbers - SMU offered 58 players who were rated 3 stars or above

Houston offered 111 of those types of players

UCF offered 131 of those types of players

UTSA offered 18 of those types of players

Rice offered 32 of those types of players

UNT offered 48 of those types of players

I would say that there are two potential reasons for this, neither of which are good:

1) We don't have the same level of expectations as Houston or UCF, and have the same level of expectation as UNT, because we don't send out offers and totally give up on a lot of kids. That is pretty sad, but what makes it worse is that if you don't offer a kid out of high school, there is no way he is going to transfer to your school later on. You aren't even on his mind. This is a good explanation of why so many transfers go to UCF and Houston and not here.

2) The other option is that we do send out the offers, but the kids have such a poor opinion of SMU that they don't even report receiving the offer. That is obviously bad as well.

There is really no other way to cut it.

FYI, numbers over the last few years:

2013:
SMU- 69
Houston-144
UCF - 128
TCU - 83
Cincy - over 200

2012:
SMU- 93
Houston- 76 (remember - coaching change)
UCF - 121
TCU - 60
Cincy - over 200

2011:
SMU - 74
Houston - 105
UCF - 114
TCU - 67
Cincy - 165

2010:
SMU - 81
Houston - 85
UCF - 75
TCU - 62
Cincy - 65

Two things pop out to me. One is that obviously, SMU and TCU both have a "come to us" strategy; TCU being more established has an obvious advantage there.

Another is that For some reason trends changed significantly after 2010, and SMU did not join in with that trend. I am not sure why, and not sure what the reason was for the trend. It could be the transfer theory, but I am not sure.

[Stallion]

I think you are picking up on TCU' selectivity in those prior years. Remember this year there are way less 3+ stars 152 v 200 in 2013 and somewhere around 260 in 2012. TCU didn't have to offer anybody near the bottom half of the Texas Class of about 360 -most all of their recruits were probably Texas Top half of the Class say Top 150 or 175. Even this year TCU will likely finish with 9-10 players who made Rivals or Scout Texas Top 100. SMU might get 1. TCU doesn't have to offer as many to fill their Class. This year a 3+ recruit pretty selective.

[Stallion]

The spike in the Class of 2012 is likely because of the large number of out of state offers by Adrian Klemm- he left in December 2011 when he was recruiting the Class of 2012. He probably offered 25-30 West Coasters in the Class of 2012

[JasonB]

That's my point - we are selectively offering like TCU, but certainly aren't as established. They can afford to be more selective.

For what it is worth:

Texas Tech is way over 100 all of those years.
Baylor is well over 100 all of those years.

We actually have less offers out there than A&M during that time (albeit by a slim margin).

UT and TCU are the only "aspiring" teams in the state that consistently send out less offers than us.

Our offer level is essentially consistent with teams that have had a lot of success over the past decade, and teams that have totally given up on competing at higher levels.

That isn't a good place to be, regardless of how you slice it.

[Peruna94&07]

Could the issue be with our academic standards? I know that we have lowered the bar to be competitive, but is the coaching staff looking at these kids and saying there is no way he makes it through his freshman year. I would think comparing the Rice numbers might shed a little light on things. Doesn't do us a lot of good to end up with a bunch of kids that never see the field because they transfer out.

I am definitely not making excuses but you got think about long term viability.

[lwjr]

Could the issue be with our academic standards? I know that we have lowered the bar to be competitive, but is the coaching staff looking at these kids and saying there is no way he makes it through his freshman year. I would think comparing the Rice numbers might shed a little light on things. Doesn't do us a lot of good to end up with a bunch of kids that never see the field because they transfer out.

I am definitely not making excuses but you got think about long term viability.

94&07, that is a good point you bring up. But the bottom line is, Tiki is lazy and does not put much effort into recruiting.

[ghost]

I wonder if the coaches have reached out to players from SMU's past to welcome them back into the fold and to the games. Those guys have kids and grandkids and great grandkids who will be players. My guess is only guys like Dickerson and James and a few of the biggest names. They should make em all welcome and feel important..Even walkons have kids who turn out to be superstars and the connection is invaluable.

[Mexmustang]

How accurate are these numbers? These services rely solely on comments made by the recruits. Notice how Rivals information has all but dried up when a couple of coaches get dismissed? Yes we need to step up recruiting but the accuracy of these sites is highly questionable as are the ratings of 24 year old wannabe sports writers that never coached or even played football.

[fifty]

Bingo. This isn't Tecmo Bowl or Madden 2015.

[Stallion]

Top 150 Texas recruits are probably interviewed more than 10-12 times by the recruiting services. Many are probably interviewed multiple times that

[JasonB]

How accurate are these numbers? These services rely solely on comments made by the recruits. Notice how Rivals information has all but dried up when a couple of coaches get dismissed? Yes we need to step up recruiting but the accuracy of these sites is highly questionable as are the ratings of 24 year old wannabe sports writers that never coached or even played football.

Folks do talk to the three stars. So either we didn't send them an offer, or they didn't see us as worth mentioning. Neither is a good thing.

[Casey]

Another interesting fact I came across (as websites are doing their pre-Signing Day hype):

46 players in the Super Bowl were UNRANKED or 2 STARS coming out of high school ... keep working make your dream reality!

Now before anyone goes nuts and says I'm uninterested in offering top talent, that's not the case at all. But:

Players have different value in different systems. Go get players who fit your system and coach them.
Stars issued by a bunch of computer geeks mean nothing.
Whether they're local is irrelevant. Get the best players you can from anywhere and get them ready to play.

[Rebel10]

Another interesting fact I came across (as websites are doing their pre-Signing Day hype):

46 players in the Super Bowl were UNRANKED or 2 STARS coming out of high school ... keep working make your dream reality!

Now before anyone goes nuts and says I'm uninterested in offering top talent, that's not the case at all. But:

Players have different value in different systems. Go get players who fit your system and coach them.
Stars issued by a bunch of computer geeks mean nothing.
Whether they're local is irrelevant. Get the best players you can from anywhere and get them ready to play.

Schools have individual talent. What about offers? Are you suggesting that SMU is getting the best players they can get when we usually don't even offer the best players? How many COLLEGE teams have won a national championship with a team full of unranked or 2 star players?

[Stallion]

Back to College Football-

1% of Alabama's recruited athletes were 2 stars(excluding kickers) in the 5 years before National Championship
2% of Florida St.'s recruited athletes were 2 stars (excluding kickers) in the 5 years before National Championship.

Players are rated as 16 or 17 years old sometimes a decade or more before they played in the NFL. There are about 10 times more 2 stars than even 3 stars going to thousands of schools. Some of these 2 stars and unranked players were actually academically marginal kids or JUCOs. THERE ARE ONLY ABOUT 35-40 5 StARS IN ANY CLASS. College Football does not have a draft and a top program can literally sign the equivalent of 4 First Round Draft picks, 5 Second Round Draft picks, 5 Third Round Draft picks etc making recruiting an immensely more important part of College Football than the Draft to pro football.