RPI Question

[Dallashoops22]

New to the boards and pretty new to college basketball (a bandwagon fan this year due to our success)

While watching college basketball, the announcers are always talking about how the Selection committee looks at RPI.

My questions is, why does our RPI not fit with our Top 25 ranking?

On the CBS list, it has us as #43.

Does this mean we are probably looking at a #10 seed?

[mrydel]

RPI is calculated on how you play, the competition you play, and how the competition you play plays. It is a formula. The top 25 is more of a what have you done lately and who did you do it against arbitrary ranking.

[Dallashoops22]

Ok...so RPI measures the whole season.

So what seed are we looking at right now?

If we win a couple more games will it change much?

[mrydel]

I will let the more informed answer. My guess would be 9 today but it could change depending on what we do Saturday and the tourney.

[Harry0569]

Ok...so RPI measures the whole season.

So what seed are we looking at right now?

If we win a couple more games will it change much?

Not really, due in large part to our TERRIBLE non-conference schedule.

If you want to read up, check out these sites:

kenpom.com (well worth the $20 annual sub)

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi

BPI is a better measure than RPI

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketb ... -explained

System comparison

How is the College Basketball Power Index by the ESPN Stats & Information group) different than RPI or other advanced rating systems like Kenpom.com and Sagarin? Here is how the included elements compare to other systems.
Includes RPI BPI Sagarin Kenpom
Scoring margin No Yes Yes Yes
Diminishing returns for blowouts No Yes Yes No
Pace of game matters No Yes No Yes
Home/Neutral/Road Yes Yes Yes Yes
SOS beyond Opponent's opponents' W-L No Yes Yes Yes
All wins are better than losses (before Opp Adj) Yes Yes No No
De-weighting games with missing key players No Yes No No

[Dallashoops22]

Thanks for the info.

My follow up questions is: What metric does the Selection Committee use? RPI or BPI?

[Harry0569]

Thanks for the info.

My follow up questions is: What metric does the Selection Committee use? RPI or BPI?

Unfortunately for us, most of the old guard uses RPI.

[Grant Carter]

Ok...so RPI measures the whole season.

So what seed are we looking at right now?

If we win a couple more games will it change much?

Not really, due in large part to our TERRIBLE non-conference schedule.

I agree that it is our terrible OOC schedule (specifically 6 games against terrible teams) weighing us down, but I actually think there is potential for a fair amount of movement, although we would have to win a couple of conference tournament games.

The RPI Forecast by Final Record section of the page linked below shows our projected RPI based on all our possible final records (including the conference tourney). As you can see, they project that we would be ranked ~17 in RPI if we won out, whereas if we lose our next two games we would be ranked ~56. A lot of combinations in between of course.

What jumps out to me is the importance of winning our first game in the conference tournament. The scenarios that show us losing the first game (23-9 or 24-8) have us projected as ~56 or ~51.

If we win one tourney game (24-9 or 25-8) we stay right about where we are near 40 (42 or 39).

If we win two tourney games (25-9 or 26-8) we move up materially, to ~31 or ~26.

Win the tourney (26-8 or 27-7) and we are projected to be ~25 or ~17.

Edit, realized I forgot the link:
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/SMU.html

[mrydel]

Not sure about RPI but the selection committee gives you a win for a tournament bye. So we will be no worse than 24 wins in the committees eyes.

[PoconoPony]

Ok...so RPI measures the whole season.

So what seed are we looking at right now?

If we win a couple more games will it change much?

Not really, due in large part to our TERRIBLE non-conference schedule.

I agree that it is our terrible OOC schedule (specifically 6 games against terrible teams) weighing us down, but I actually think there is potential for a fair amount of movement, although we would have to win a couple of conference tournament games.

The RPI Forecast by Final Record section of the page linked below shows our projected RPI based on all our possible final records (including the conference tourney). As you can see, they project that we would be ranked ~17 in RPI if we won out, whereas if we lose our next two games we would be ranked ~56. A lot of combinations in between of course.

What jumps out to me is the importance of winning our first game in the conference tournament. The scenarios that show us losing the first game (23-9 or 24-8) have us projected as ~56 or ~51.

If we win one tourney game (24-9 or 25-8) we stay right about where we are near 40 (42 or 39).

If we win two tourney games (25-9 or 26-8) we move up materially, to ~31 or ~26.

Win the tourney (26-8 or 27-7) and we are projected to be ~25 or ~17.

Edit, realized I forgot the link:
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/SMU.html

Remember this schedule was designed to break in a totally new team and give them experience, a chance to blend and mature. This was a pretty good schedule based on the circumstances.

[PonyKris89]

Thanks Grant, I believe you had said they were projected at 13 rPI if we win out before Louisville, so the Louisville loss does hurt us by 4.
I am so tired of reading that these losses vs great teams don't hurt our RPI. While these losses might not punish us much, the opportunities for gains in RPI still are in the cards.

[USF04]

What I don't get is how OSU is in front of us in RPI?