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ponyboy wrote:Need more data.

ponyboy wrote:Sounds like a devastating stat. But how well do other 7-5 type teams do against teams with 7-5 records or better? Need more data.

Is your goal to be a consistent 7-5 team? Or do you desire to do better.

While the 4-20 record isn't awesome, it doesn't make me want to fire june.
And the comments and staff attitude about recruiting do upset me but if we were winning maybe I could over look them.

Add those two together, and you need to fire the coach and go in a different direction.
I'm grateful for him getting us back on the map, helping us get in to the BE, but 4-20 and not recruiting is only going to hurt us now.

My goal is national championships every year. That's the goal. Intermediate goal was to get us where we are now. I do *think* June's taken us as far as he can, but will wait until the end of the year for final judgement.

Mustangs35SMU wrote:

ponyboy wrote:Need more data.

The Stassen win loss database is down or I'd get better actuals, but let's try a little exercise. The numbers may not be exactly right, but it at least gives you an idea of the problem.

SMU's a 7-5 level team. How many games should a 7-5 team expect to win against other 7-5 teams? 50% right? We're at the same level, so half of those games.

What about 8-4 teams? Can I say a 7-5 team would win 30% of those?

9-3? 15%

10-2? 5%

11-1? 2%

12-0? 1%

Add all those up and divide by 5 and you get the conclusion that a 7-5 team should win 20.6% of its games against winning teams. Play 21 teams, like we did, and you can reasonably expect to win 4.3 of them.

ponyboy wrote:

Mustangs35SMU wrote:

ponyboy wrote:Need more data.

The Stassen win loss database is down or I'd get better actuals, but let's try a little exercise. The numbers may not be exactly right, but it at least gives you an idea of the problem.

SMU's a 7-5 level team. How many games should a 7-5 team expect to win against other 7-5 teams? 50% right? We're at the same level, so half of those games.

What about 8-4 teams? Can I say a 7-5 team would win 30% of those?

9-3? 15%

10-2? 5%

11-1? 2%

12-0? 1%

Add all those up and divide by 5 and you get the conclusion that a 7-5 team should win 20.6% of its games against winning teams. Play 21 teams, like we did, and you can reasonably expect to win 4.3 of them.

Now I have seen it all from the June to the death supporters. When you make up winning percentages like that you can prove anything. With that type of math then June should get a raise and a contract extension. What a bunch of mess.

Ok, forget my numbers. You give me yours. What percentage of the time should an 7-5 level team beat an 8-4 team? Less than 50%, right? Where would you place the number? And 9-3 teams? Less than the 8-4 number, right? Etc, etc.

What are your numbers?

My numbers are 4-21 against teams with winning records. You can jack around and try to do back flips with numbers to prove it is good but it is not good to go 4-21 against teams with winning records.

I don't care to prove 4-21 is good or not good. I just need more data to understand whether 4-21 against winning teams is bad or not. They let you have an SMU degree? Wow.

ponyboy wrote:I don't care to prove 4-21 is good or not good. I just need more data to understand whether 4-21 against winning teams is bad or not.

I guess since Coach Jones has been here for 5 years and has basically 1 win per year against teams with winning records is hard to figure out if it is good or not.

I'm serious. They need to pull your SMU degree.

ponyboy wrote:I'm serious. They need to pull your SMU degree.

Is that as good as you can do as a June to the death supporter.

Is the 4-21 quoted here related to teams that have had a winning record at the end of that season or is that going into games in which the opponent has a winning record?

Junior wrote:Is the 4-21 quoted here related to teams that have had a winning record at the end of that season or is that going into games in which the opponent has a winning record?

TCU, Tulsa, and Neveda had both winning records when SMU played them as well as winning records as the end of the year. Not sure what ECU's record was when SMU beat them.

Rebel10 wrote:

Junior wrote:Is the 4-21 quoted here related to teams that have had a winning record at the end of that season or is that going into games in which the opponent has a winning record?

TCU, Tulsa, and Neveda had both winning records when SMU played them as well as winning records as the end of the year. Not sure what ECU's record was when SMU beat them.

i wasn't saying you were wrong, i was just asking for clarification as to how you were calculating this.

Junior wrote:

Rebel10 wrote:

Junior wrote:Is the 4-21 quoted here related to teams that have had a winning record at the end of that season or is that going into games in which the opponent has a winning record?

TCU, Tulsa, and Neveda had both winning records when SMU played them as well as winning records as the end of the year. Not sure what ECU's record was when SMU beat them.

i wasn't saying you were wrong, i was just asking for clarification as to how you were calculating this.

No problem. Good question.