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ponyboy wrote:I just need more data to understand whether 4-21 against winning teams is bad or not.

How is 4-21 in any way not bad?

Mustangs35SMU wrote:

ponyboy wrote:I just need more data to understand whether 4-21 against winning teams is bad or not.

How is 4-21 in any way not bad?

please point out where i stated that it was positive in the least...

ponyboy wrote:Ok, forget my numbers. You give me yours. What percentage of the time should an 7-5 level team beat an 8-4 team? Less than 50%, right? Where would you place the number? And 9-3 teams? Less than the 8-4 number, right? Etc, etc.

What are your numbers?

1.) A 7-5 team that lost to an 8-4 team had an identical record except for their head to head game. So by your analysis, they should be a 50-50 chance split.

2.) When you take your total and divide by 5 you are assuming that the likelihood of facing a 12-0 team is the same as a 7-5 team. That logic is flawed.

3.) Your calculations are all based on the assumption that SMU should be no better than a 7-5 team. That is a low bar and furthermore is a circular argument. We are only a 7-5 team bc we do not beat competitive teams and "get fat" off of crappy teams.

4.) I find it funny that you are questioning whether someone should have received a degree from SMU when your own logic is very flawed. Stones and glass houses. This is not a personal attack on you, just having read many of your posts over the years it seems uncommon for you to make a personal attack on others and I think your position on this particular argument is rather weak.

5.) You cannot make up enough numbers to make a 4 win 20+ loss record against teams with winning records seem even remotely close to acceptable.

let's hire jeff fisher

ponyboy wrote:Ok, forget my numbers. You give me yours. What percentage of the time should an 7-5 level team beat an 8-4 team? Less than 50%, right?

Wrong.

For simplicity sake, assuming it is the last game of the season, both teams would be 7-4 entering the game. Also assuming there are no ties, which you certainly are, then the chances are exact 50/50, not less than 50% as you are proposing.

And I don't understand why everyone is still saying 4-21. It is 4-22 headed toward 4-23 if TCU wins another game this season.

Here's what you don't get. I'm not trying to make the numbers acceptable! I'm trying to make them intelligible. 4-21 *sounds* bad, it *feels* bad. But is it really? Not a slam dunk yes. I'm sorry, not a slam dunk yes. Unless you just want to decree it bad without a standard against which to compare it.

Name a team you *reasonably* wish we were like by this point in the June Jones era. Be reasonable and remember where we came from. Give me a name or two. And, again, be reasonable. I think 7-5 is reasonable by this point, but I'm a Jones butt kisser. Give me a name or two.

SMU2007 wrote:let's hire jeff fisher

Pretty sure the Rams are paying him quite a bit more than we would.

Somebody give me a midmajor team you reasonably wish we were equal to at this point in the June Jones era.

Mustang Icon, didn't read your post. You are correct. Solid Post.

Also, JJ is 4-22. 2-11 against OOC and 2-11 against C-USA.

We all know how weak C-USA is and has been over the past 5 years. That means teams with 7-5 records in C-USA are achieving them by beating up on clearly weaker conference opponents. You would assume JJ's record against them would be better than OOC. Its NOT.

ok-p-boy. how about a small cali school similar to ours named Stanford. What is their record for the last few years? Or a school called TC-who which is a small private school that is about 40 miles from us.

ponyboy wrote:Somebody give me a midmajor team you reasonably wish we were equal to at this point in the June Jones era.

one that could win C-USA.

SMU2007 wrote:

ponyboy wrote:Somebody give me a midmajor team you reasonably wish we were equal to at this point in the June Jones era.

one that could win C-USA.

La. tech. easily.

redpony wrote:ok-p-boy. how about a small cali school similar to ours named Stanford. What is their record for the last few years? Or a school called TC-who which is a small private school that is about 40 miles from us.

You think Stanford and TCU are where we ought to *reasonably* be right now at this point in the June Jones' era? TCU won over 90% of their games in the last four years, putting them at number two in the NCAA. Stanford won over 70%, putting them at number seventeen. That's a reasonable expectation?

For what we are paying - why not?????????????????

In Gary Patterson's fifth full year he went 11-1. Just sayin.