CFN Prediction: Baylor 37-27

[Harry0569]

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1216294.html
GAME OF THE WEEK

SMU (0-0) at Baylor (0-0) Sept. 2, 6:30, FSN

Here’s The Deal: A couple of former Southwest Conference rivals will renew acquaintances for the first time since 2005. Baylor has two primary goals this year, bolstering a leaky defense and sustaining the momentum that came with rare back-to-back bowl invitations. Of course, achieving the latter will require that the Bears adequately replace some of the best offensive weapons in school history, namely Heisman-winning QB Robert Griffin III. While Baylor is hoping to sustain last year’s 10-win level, SMU is beginning to get greedy under June Jones. Yeah, the Mustangs have done well by appearing in three straight postseasons, but they have also hit a plateau. Jones, who hopes to win the Conference USA West division before jetting off to the Big East in 2013, might finally have his kind of triggerman in former five-star Texas recruit Garrett Gilbert.

Why SMU Might Win: The Baylor D will be better largely because it can’t get any worse than it was last fall. This will be a tough opener for a unit entering the season with its back against the wall. If Gilbert is able to shake off recent shoulder problems, he’ll be the catalyst for the most balanced Mustangs attack since Jones arrived on the Hilltop. The run-and-shoot will flourish with a big-time quarterback hooking up with dynamic WR Darius Johnson. Plus, pile-driving RB Zach Line returns after missing the final three games to a foot injury. The quick strikes of Gilbert combined with the between-the-tackles pounding of Line might be enough to convince the Bears that the 2011 season has yet to end.

Why Baylor Might Win: Yeah, the program lost most of last year’s top offensive weapons, but it remains plenty dangerous for head coach Art Briles. While Nick Florence won’t bring a second straight Heisman to Waco, the senior’s grasp of the system and skill set bode well for a smoother-than-expected transition. It’ll also help that the O-line line is terrific, receivers Terrance Williams and Tevin Reese rank among the best in the Big 12 and the backfield is steeped in quality options. The Bears will continue to ring up big numbers on the scoreboard, meaning the beleaguered D won’t be forced to grow up overnight. If SMU fails to generate a pass rush, a persistent problem a year ago, Florence will pick apart a middling defensive backfield.

What To Watch Out For: So what will the SMU offensive line look like at the outset of 2012? The front wall, which had its share of problems in 2011, must find five new starters. Although the healthy return of Blake McJunkin certainly helps, it remains to be seen if the rebuilt unit will create adequate space for Line, and allow Gilbert the time he needs to check down his receivers. The Mustangs will need to pay special attention to veteran ends Gary Mason and Terrance Lloyd, who are attempting to energize a quiet Baylor pass rush.

What Will Happen: Baylor and SMU will stage an intriguing game on Sunday, with an upset not entirely out of the question. The Mustangs will arrive in Waco with something to prove to the country, and the right mix of talent in the backfield and along the defensive front seven to keep the home team sweating throughout. However, going on the road with a makeshift O-line is no way to upend a fringe Top 25 opponent from the Big 12. The Bears will perform with a chip on their shoulders, eager to show the nation that there is indeed life after RG3. Florence will get out of the blocks quickly, accounting for at least 300 yards, while deftly distributing the ball to a deep and combustible collection of skill players. Baylor will withstand a good workout before creating some breathing room after halftime.

CFN Prediction: Baylor 37 … SMU 27
Line: Baylor -10.5; O/U: 58
Must Watch Rating (5 - Boss, 1 - Married To Jonas) 2.5

[Harry0569]

http://cfn.scout.com/2/1216320.html

SOUTHERN METHODIST-BAYLOR: Will this SMU season opener on a Sunday evening in Texas go better than last year's visit to Texas A&M? It needs to; if it doesn't, another bloodbath awaits for the Ponies.