Opponent preview: Baylor Bears claw their way into Gerald J. Ford Stadium

[PonyPride]

Opponent preview: Baylor Bears claw their way into Gerald J. Ford Stadium
11 a.m. game revives rivalry between former Southwest Conference foes

The Mustangs’ second game of the year, at 11 a.m. Saturday against Baylor, couldn’t be more different from the first. The opener kicked off late (8 p.m.) and SMU rolled over an outmanned East Texas A&M team in a performance. This week, PonyFans can enjoy breakfast on the Boulevard before the Mustangs take on Baylor at 11 a.m.

SMU has not beaten the Bears, who opened the season with a 38-24 home loss to Auburn, in decades — the last Mustang victory in the series between former Southwest Conference rivals was in 1986. Baylor head coach Dave Aranda stopped short of calling the game a “must-win” for his team, instead falling back on the standard coachspeak about wanting to see improvement.

"We’re looking to play better, and we’re looking to start faster,” said Aranda, who is beginning his sixth season as Baylor’s head coach. "We’re looking to, when we get into adversity, maneuver through that better. Offensively, I think there’s a lot of positive from this last game, and there’s still things that we can play cleaner. I think there’s a lot of weapons on that side of the ball, and so the expectations there are really high.”

The Auburn game was decided on the ground: Baylor mustered just 64 yards and four first downs on the ground, while surrendering 21 rushing first downs and 307 rushing yards to Auburn. The porous rushing defense was hampered by the absence of injured defensive lineman Jackie Marshall (6-3, 306), the defensive line’s best run defender who had 42 tackles, 6-5 tackles for loss and three sacks a year ago. Aranda said Marshall is “day-to-day."

The Baylor offense is led by senior quarterback Sawyer Robertson (6-4, 220), the former Mississippi State transfer who completed 27 of 48 passes for 419 yards and three touchdown — and no interceptions — in his team’s opener, after throwing for 28 touchdowns and 3,071 yards in his first almost-full season as the team’s starter. Robertson is a decorated signal caller, having earned a spot on the preseason watch lists for the Davey O’Brien Award (given to the nation’s top quarterback), the Maxwell Award (given to the top player), the Manning Award (top quarterback) and the Wuerffel Trophy (given to the “best citizen”).

His array of targets has a decidedly different look than it did a year ago, thanks to the loss of stalwarts like Monaray Baldwin, Hal Presley and Ketron Jackson, Jr. As part of the effort to fill those voids, the Bears dipped into the transfer portal, bringing in seniors Louis Brown IV ((6-2, 192) from San Diego State, Kobe Prentice (5-11, 190) from Alabama and Kole Wilson (5-9, 171) from Texas State. Wilson stole the show in the opener, hauling in eight passes for 134 yards, while trig end Michael Trigg (6-4, 240) made seven receptions for 99 yards and a score. Trigg, who played at USC and Ole Miss before arriving in Waco, is exceptionally athletic for a player his size and caught 30 passes for 395 yards and three scores last season, despite missing two games. A member of the watch list for the John Mackey Award, given to the nation’s top tight end, there is some similarity in the way the Baylor offense uses him and the way SMU deploy’s R.J. Maryland: each will line up in the slot or out wide, runs smooth routes and has reliable hands.

Redshirt senior Josh Cameron (6-1, 224) was held to just two catches for 54 yards Saturday after leading the offense in receptions (52), yards (754) and receiving touchdowns (10) in 2024. Aranda gave credit to the Tigers who made Cameron a focus of their defensive gameplan.

Dawson Pendergrass was supposed to be the Bears’ No. 1 running back this season but was lost for the year because of an injury suffered in preseason camp. In his place, the offense leaned on sophomore Bryson Washington (6-0, 216), who shattered the program’s freshman record for rushing yards when he piled up 1,028, not to mention 12 touchdowns, in his first season last year. Washington had 14 of his team’s 24 carries in the loss to Auburn and 54 yards. True freshman Caden Knighten (5-11, 212) added 29 yards on six carries.

The Baylor offense operates behind one of the strongest offensive lines in the Big 12, and four of last year’s starters — left tackle Sidney Fugar (6-5, 343), left guard Ryan Lengyel (6-6, 312), center Coleton Price (6-2, 318) and right guard Omar Aigbedion (6-3, 310) are back. The only newcomer in the starting lineup is right tackle Kaden Sieracki (6-9, 317).

The SMU and Baylor offenses have one clear similarity: each likes to keep the offense on the field on fourth down — a strategy Aranda said affects both his team’s offense and opposing defenses.

"I think if you look at it now … some of the numbers that we’re putting up — I don’t know that we’re putting them up all the way without going for it on fourth down,” Aranda said. "That’s not to take away anything from anybody. It’s just really, really hard to defend an explosive, talented offense that goes for it all four downs. Sometimes, on the 30 or the 40, I think we’re naturally inclined to think, ‘what happens if we don’t make it?’ But those are sometimes the hardest calls to make on the other side of it. You don’t want to sell the house, because it could go all the way, and how do you play all of that? It’s difficult. It puts defenses in a bind. The other part of it is that it gives confidence to the offense, because we’re in attack mode all the way.

"Then you look at … the numbers of it, and you look athlete people that have done it: the points have gone up, the wins have gone up, the time of possession has gone up — a lot of positives have gone up with it. Looking at it, on the 30 or 40, there’s still that shock value associated with that. I understand that."

The Bears run their defense out of a base 3-3-5 alignment. Aranda, who makes his team’s defensive calls for the second straight season, danced around questions about who who could step in for Marshall if he is unable to play Saturday, saying only, "We have to get much better there. Of all the disappointments, [the lack of rushing defense] is probably the biggest one."

The Baylor defensive line is big. The group loses a little size if Marshall can’t go, in which case he’ll be replaced by redshirt sophomore Trent Thomas (6-6, 259) or redshirt junior Ronnie Mageo (6-5, 294) across from either redshirt senior Cooper Lanz (6-4, 286) or redshirt junior Devonte Tezino (6-5, 295). Redshirt sophomore DK Kalu (6-4, 309) anchors the middle of the line from his nose tackle spot, but in short-yardage and goal-line packages, he is replaced — or sometimes joined — inside by redshirt sophomore Smu Taumanupepe who carries 376 pounds on his 6-3 frame.

The heartbeat of the Baylor defense is redshirt junior linebacker Keaton Thomas (6-2, 229), who led the Bears with 114 tackles a year ago, including 10 or more in four games in 2024, which earned him preseason All-Big 12 and All-America honors, as well as spots on the watch lists for the Bronko Nagurski Award (best defensive player, Bednarik Award (best defensive player) and Butkus Award (given annually to the nation’s best linebacker). In the opener against Auburn, all he did was pile up 15 tackles — more than double the total for any other player on either team.

The Bears spend much of their time with five defensive backs. Strong safety Devyn Bobby (5-11, 198), free safety Jacob Redding (6-1, 196) and ROVER (safety/linebacker hybrid) Phoenix Jackson (6-0, 223) each had six tackles against Auburn. Bobby also led the Baylor defense in 2024 with three interceptions.

Baylor touts Palmer Williams (6-2, 203) as the nation’s best punter, and it is easy to understand the claim after Williams averaged a program-record 49.35 yards on 43 punts last season, which led the nation among punters with at least 2.5 attempts per game. He has averaged just over 46 yards per punt in his two seasons in Waco. He had the best punting game in program history last season at Utah, when he averaged 62.7 yards on six punts, with a long of 79 and two downed within the opposing 20-yard line.

After watching Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold run through his defense on 16 carries for 137 yards and a pair of touchdowns, Aranda said his team faces another stiff challenge from SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings, who Aranda compared to an admired current NFL starter.

"I think one of the differences … the quarterback we just played (Arnold) — he was scrambling to run it, so if he saw a certain coverage, he ran,” Aranda said, "where Kevin — a lot of his runs are to throw it. So he’ll keep the drive a alive and he’ll make you pay with a ball down the field. We would play (former Iowa State, now San Francisco quarterback) Brock Purdy and he would be this way, where he would be scrambling and he would be running behind the line of scrimmage, buying time, and there would be a defender that would be covering a back or a tight end … the defender would see Purdy run this way and he would come up — the defender would leave his coverage, and the receiver — the tight end would go vertical, and it would be kind of a pop shot there. There’s a bunch of that on film with the guy that we’re playing. There has to be use of spies and three-man rushes, we’ve got to try to flush him certain ways. So there will be the whole gamut, going in, to try to control him.

“I think (Jennings) does a great job of identifying coverage, and he’s a very adept passer. He has done a great job maturing through all of it, and they have done a great job coaching him, because he’s impressive to watch.”

Saturday’s game can be seen on The CW or heard on KTCK 96.7 FM/1310 AM.